Will FIX disclose a discretionary insider sales cluster >$20M from C-suite/directors within 30 days of any quarterly earnings print in FY2026 (after Q1 2026 print)?
Current Prediction
Why This Question Matters
Direct test of GOVERNANCE_ALIGNMENT escalation trigger flagged by Insider Investigator. Another discretionary insider cluster >$20M after a 2026 quarterly print would shift the Feb-Mar 2026 $43.6M cluster from 'one-time post-record-print exit' to 'pattern,' validating that management views current valuation as elevated. Would push GOVERNANCE_ALIGNMENT from MIXED toward MISALIGNED. The probability tests whether the post-Q4 cluster was an isolated event or the start of institutionalized selling.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
Three quarterly print windows in question scope (Q2 2026, Q3 2026, Q4 2026). Insider pattern shows: (1) 0% 10b5-1 adoption, (2) 100% discretionary, (3) reactive to print results. With stock at $1,726 (above all Feb-Mar cluster prices), insiders may sell more aggressively at next strong print. CEO retains 171,523 shares, multiple directors retain large stakes — supply available. Threshold $20M is low (less than half Feb-Mar cluster magnitude) — partial repeat suffices. Probability of at least one such cluster across 3 quarterly opportunities: ~55%.
Probability calculation: with ~30-40% probability per quarterly window of a $20M+ cluster (given pattern but accounting for chilling effect post first cluster), probability over 3 windows ≈ 1 - (1-0.30)^3 to 1 - (1-0.40)^3 = 0.66 to 0.78. Adjusting downward for: (1) public scrutiny on the pattern may temporarily restrain, (2) next cluster's sellers would be the same individuals who just sold — they may be tapped out near-term, (3) PRSU vest schedule already crystallized in March 2026 cluster. ~50%.
Director Sandbrook reduced his holdings >20% and retains only 9,166 shares — pattern strongly suggests progressive monetization at higher levels. Director Myers sold $12.7M and likely has more available given his cohort role. CEO Lane retains 171K shares — large supply. With 3 windows, probability that at least one director-led cluster crosses $20M is high. ~58%.
Pattern strongly suggests recurrence given (a) zero 10b5-1 adoption indicates reactive selling, (b) stock continuing to make new highs creates new psychological selling windows, (c) multiple insiders demonstrated willingness to sell concurrent with CEO. However, the specific $20M aggregate threshold over 30-day post-print window is less certain — could easily fragment across longer time periods or fall just below threshold. ~52%.
Slight bear: if the insider cluster signal is now widely-known (which it is — the pattern was disclosed in Insider Investigator analysis), management may face pressure to either adopt 10b5-1 plans (which would change the calculus) or moderate selling pace. Reputational considerations could cap the rate of selling per window. Plus most directors who sold heavily in Q4 may already be near desired diversification level. ~48%.
Three quarterly opportunities with reactive pattern + multiple insiders with remaining holdings + new highs creating new sale points. ~55%.
Pattern of 100% discretionary + 3 quarterly windows + multiple directors with retained holdings + $20M threshold (less than half Q4 cluster) = ~52% probability of at least one repeat cluster.
Insider behavior trends to repeat at strong prints. Multiple insiders remain with substantial holdings. Stock above prior cluster prices increases attractive selling levels. ~55%.
Balanced view: pattern suggests recurrence but specific 30-day $20M threshold has timing/magnitude uncertainty. ~50%.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if SEC Form 4 filings show aggregate gross discretionary open-market sales by FIX Section 16 officers and directors exceeding $20.0M within any 30-calendar-day window starting from the date of any FY2026 quarterly earnings print (Q2 2026, Q3 2026, or Q4 2026 — i.e., not the Q1 2026 print). 'Discretionary' means non-10b5-1 sales (Form 4 box for 10b5-1 plan unchecked). Resolves NO if no such cluster occurs, or if all clusters are below $20.0M, or if all sales are 10b5-1 transactions.
Resolution Source
SEC EDGAR Form 4 filings for FIX insiders
Source Trigger
Discretionary insider sales (post-print) — current $43.6M Feb-Mar 2026 cluster — threshold: recurring cluster >$20M post any quarterly print would Reassess GOVERNANCE_ALIGNMENT toward MISALIGNED
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