FLRActive

Will Fluor execute at least $1B in share repurchases in FY2026?

Resolves February 28, 2027(309d)

IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

83%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement97%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 25, 2026

Why This Question Matters

$400M already executed in Jan-Feb 2026 against a $1.4B annual plan. Tests whether mid-year cash bridge pressure forces management to slow buyback. YES validates capital return discipline; NO would signal cash bridge tighter than guided and material risk to the per-share story.

CAPITAL_DEPLOYMENTFUNDING_FRAGILITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 78% – 86%Aggregate: 83%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

85%

$400M already done in Jan-Feb against $1.4B plan; only $600M needed across remaining 10 months. Even if pace decelerates by 50%, the threshold is met. FY25 plan execution: $754M delivered against an undisclosed-but-implied target — track record positive. Pro-forma cash $2.7B provides ample capacity. Mid-year cash bridge tight but $1B buyback through year-end leaves $400M cushion vs. $1.4B announced. Management framework explicit: 'capital returns weighted toward share repurchases.' M&A bounded to tuck-in. Strong probability.

$400M already done in 2 months — pace ahead of schedule$1B threshold provides 28% cushion vs $1.4B announcementManagement framework explicit on capital return weighting

opusRun 2

82%

High probability of YES. The $1.0B threshold against $1.4B target leaves 30% buffer. Management would need to materially abandon the plan to miss. Even in a Mexico project / legacy infrastructure stress scenario, a $1B buyback against $400M already executed only requires $200M/quarter in remaining quarters — well within typical pace. CFO's 'diminishing returns' commentary is forward-looking guidance, not retreating from current commitment. Stork divestiture + CFHI sale provide additional capital.

30% buffer vs announcement$200M/quarter required is well within capacityStork + CFHI proceeds provide additional capital

opusRun 3

86%

Very high probability. $400M already executed in 2 months means $1B threshold is reached at $600M additional, achievable at $66M/month or $200M/quarter pace — very conservative. Management has not signaled any retreat from the plan in subsequent commentary. Buyback authorizations typically remain in force unless explicitly suspended; for FLR, the announcement was January 2026 and there's no signal of pause. Even on a stressed-cash scenario with mid-year tightness, $1B is the conservative case.

$1B requires only $66M/month going forwardNo signal of pause or retreatBuyback authorizations typically stable

sonnetRun 1

82%

High confidence YES. The threshold is significantly below the announced plan. Even if mid-year cash bridge forces management to slow to 50% of plan, $700M total is the minimum case, which still misses by $300M. But the more realistic scenario is execution at 75-90% of plan = $1.05-$1.26B. Probability heavily weighted toward YES.

Threshold significantly below announced planEven 50% execution barely missesRealistic execution 75-90% of plan

sonnetRun 2

78%

Slightly more cautious. The cash bridge is tighter than headline suggests when accounting for $400M+ tax bill, legacy project funding, declining JV distributions, and potential working capital pressure. If awards slip to late H2, mid-year liquidity constraint could force buyback pacing reduction below $200M/quarter. Even with that constraint, $1B is achievable but with less margin than the headline plan suggests.

Cash bridge tight after tax + project funding + JV declinesPotential pacing reduction in stress scenarioMargin smaller than headline suggests

sonnetRun 3

84%

High confidence. Multi-quarter execution discipline already demonstrated (FY25 $754M, plus $400M Jan-Feb 2026). $1B threshold is the floor, not the ceiling. Management has demonstrated commitment to capital return framework even in mixed operational quarters. Tuck-in M&A bounded explicitly removes alternative capital deployment risk.

Multi-quarter execution discipline demonstrated$1B is floor not ceilingTuck-in M&A bounded removes alternative use risk

haikuRun 1

85%

$400M already done. Threshold below plan. Strong probability YES.

$400M done in 2 monthsThreshold below planStrong execution track

haikuRun 2

80%

High probability. Cash bridge tight but $1B threshold achievable. Track record of buyback discipline.

Threshold achievableCash bridge tight but workableTrack record positive

haikuRun 3

83%

High probability. $1B floor achievable on $1.4B plan. Management framework clear.

$1B floor easily achievableManagement framework clearPace ahead of schedule

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if cumulative FY2026 share repurchases (including $400M completed in Jan-Feb) reach $1.0B or more per Q4 2026 earnings release / 10-K. Resolves NO if FY2026 total buybacks are below $1.0B.

Resolution Source

Fluor Q4 2026 earnings release, FY2026 10-K, or quarterly 10-Q disclosures

Source Trigger

Buyback execution pacing — $1.4B FY26 plan with $400M already done in Jan-Feb; quarterly cadence of remaining $1B is the validation lever for the capital return framework.

stress-scannerCAPITAL_DEPLOYMENTHIGH

View FLR Analysis

Full multi-lens equity analysis