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Will Fastly's FY 2025 10-K confirm full remediation of the material weakness in revenue process controls?

Resolves April 15, 2026(48d)
IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

32%
Likely No
Model Agreement92%
Predictions9 runs
Last UpdatedFebruary 12, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Material weakness remediation is the nearest-term binary catalyst with clear resolution. Three of five lenses flagged the FY 2024 material weakness in revenue process controls as a qualifying concern. Remediation would remove the qualification from EXCEEDING operational execution and strengthen confidence in revenue measurement (particularly important given the RPO recast). Continued material weakness would maintain the governance concern and raise questions about whether the strong reported metrics are measured with adequate precision.

OPERATIONAL_EXECUTIONREVENUE_DURABILITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
haiku
Range: 27%38%Aggregate: 32%
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
opusRun 1
32%

The central tension is timing. New CFO started August 2025, giving approximately 5 months (Aug-Dec) of operating effectiveness. Deloitte typically requires 2+ quarters of effective operation, and 5 months is borderline at 1.5-2 quarters. The RPO recast in Q3 2025 is potentially damaging -- it occurred during the remediation period and involved revenue-adjacent calculations. Deloitte could interpret this as evidence that controls were still ineffective during the remediation window. The manual process complexity also makes quick fixes harder. Companies with material weaknesses in revenue controls typically take 12-18 months to remediate.

5-month remediation window is borderline for Deloitte's testing requirementsQ3 RPO recast during remediation period undermines clean narrativeManual revenue processes are structurally complex to remediate quickly
opusRun 2
38%

Base rate for material weakness remediation within one fiscal year is approximately 40-60%, but revenue process control weaknesses are among the more complex to remediate. The Q3 RPO recast demonstrates ongoing process issues in revenue measurement even during remediation. However, hiring both a new CFO AND a new CAO shows serious intent, and the no-misstatement finding means Deloitte needs to see redesigned controls operating effectively rather than corrections to financials. This makes the auditor path slightly easier. The personnel root cause is more addressable than a systems root cause.

Revenue process weaknesses are complex to remediate within one yearNo financial misstatement makes auditor path somewhat easierDual leadership hires (CFO + CAO) demonstrate serious remediation intent
opusRun 3
35%

Deloitte needs to see: (a) redesigned controls addressing the root cause, (b) implementation of those controls, (c) sufficient operating history to test effectiveness. The personnel root cause is being addressed with CFO and CAO hires. Some auditors have cleared weaknesses with 4-5 months of testing data when the weakness was personnel-related. However, the RPO recast creates an awkward counterpoint -- if Deloitte was testing remediated controls and a revenue-adjacent error occurred in Q3, they may need to restart the clock. The manual process issue is structural and may require system automation that takes longer than 5 months.

Personnel-related root causes can sometimes be remediated faster than system-related onesRPO recast in Q3 may force Deloitte to restart remediation clockManual process complexity may require automation beyond the 5-month window
sonnetRun 1
30%

The timeline is tight but not impossible. New CFO August 2025, new CAO hired, five months of operating effectiveness. The RPO recast in Q3 2025 is the biggest red flag -- it happened during the remediation period and involves revenue processes. Deloitte will scrutinize this heavily. Most companies with revenue control material weaknesses take more than one year to fully remediate. The manual process complexity adds another structural layer. Real remediation efforts are underway but the evidence suggests they need more time.

Q3 RPO recast is the biggest red flag for auditor assessmentMost revenue control weaknesses take >1 year to remediateManual process complexity adds structural difficulty to fast remediation
sonnetRun 2
28%

Two factors dominate. First, timing: CFO started August 2025, meaning controls were being redesigned in Q3 and tested effective through Q4 -- only 5 months. Second, the RPO recast in Q3 is a tangible data point showing revenue measurement errors during the remediation period. Even though RPO is not revenue itself, the resolution criteria asks about revenue process controls broadly, and RPO calculation errors fall within that scope. Deloitte has a conservative institutional incentive -- issuing a clean opinion too early exposes them to liability. More likely than not, the material weakness persists another year.

5-month testing window from CFO start to fiscal year endRPO recast shows revenue measurement errors during remediation periodDeloitte has institutional incentive to be conservative on timing
sonnetRun 3
36%

For YES, Deloitte would need to be satisfied that: (1) the personnel issue is resolved (CFO + CAO hired -- yes), (2) redesigned controls exist (likely, given leadership focus), (3) controls operated effectively for a sufficient period (borderline at 5 months), (4) the RPO recast doesn't invalidate the remediation narrative (uncertain). Factor 3 is borderline and factor 4 adds meaningful risk. However, companies sometimes remediate faster than the typical timeline suggests when the root cause is clearly identified and directly addressed. The personnel root cause is one of the more straightforward types to fix.

Personnel root cause is more straightforward to address than systems issues5-month testing period is borderline for Deloitte sufficiency standardRPO recast adds uncertainty to whether remediation narrative holds
haikuRun 1
30%

Material weakness disclosed in FY 2024. New leadership hired mid-2025. RPO error in Q3 2025 during remediation period. Five months of remediation time is tight by industry standards. Most material weaknesses in revenue controls persist for more than one year. The remediation efforts are genuine but likely insufficient in the available timeframe.

Most revenue control material weaknesses persist >1 yearRPO error in Q3 during remediation periodFive months of remediation time is tight
haikuRun 2
27%

Timing is the binding constraint. August 2025 CFO start gives approximately 5 months testing period. RPO recast in Q3 complicates the narrative and may be treated as evidence of continued deficiency. Deloitte is institutionally conservative on material weakness remediation timelines. Manual processes described as 'complex set of procedures' are structurally difficult to fix quickly.

August 2025 CFO start gives only 5 months testing periodDeloitte is conservative on remediation timelinesComplex manual procedures are difficult to remediate quickly
haikuRun 3
33%

Root cause was personnel turnover, which is being directly addressed with CFO and CAO hires. No financial misstatement occurred, which simplifies the remediation path. If Deloitte views 5 months as sufficient and treats RPO recast as separate from the material weakness scope, remediation is possible. But the weight of evidence suggests the probability is below one-third.

Personnel root cause directly addressed by leadership hiresNo misstatement simplifies remediation pathWhether Deloitte treats RPO recast as within or outside weakness scope is key swing factor

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Fastly's FY 2025 10-K filing (expected by late February or March 2026) includes either (a) management's assertion that the material weakness has been fully remediated, or (b) the external auditor's opinion on ICFR is unqualified (clean opinion). Resolves NO if (a) the material weakness is still disclosed as existing, (b) a new material weakness is identified, or (c) the 10-K is not filed by the resolution date.

Resolution Source

Fastly FY 2025 Annual Report on Form 10-K, specifically Part II Item 9A (Controls and Procedures) and auditor's report on ICFR

Source Trigger

FY 2025 10-K material weakness remediation

atomic-auditorOPERATIONAL_EXECUTIONHIGH
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