Will any Fastly insider make an open-market or 10b5-1 plan stock purchase by August 2026?
Current Prediction
Why This Question Matters
Insider activity is a direct measure of management conviction. With 19 sells and zero buys, the insider pattern is starkly one-directional. The Myth Meter identified this as a structural governance concern. Given the stock surged 64-88% post-earnings, any insider buying would be particularly meaningful as a conviction signal at elevated prices. Continued absence of buying after a major repricing would maintain the DIVERGING classification and suggest management is not personally endorsing the narrative they are promoting.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
The base rate for voluntary insider open-market purchases at growth-stage tech companies is low -- perhaps 10-20% of companies see any insider buying in a 6-month window. For Fastly specifically, the 19:0 sell-to-buy ratio and structural compensation dynamics make it even less likely. The new CEO and CFO have large equity packages ($8M RSU grant for CFO); RSU grants provide alignment without requiring personal capital. The stock nearly doubled to ~$16 post-earnings, meaning any purchase is at elevated prices. The CTO is actively selling on a programmatic basis. Over the 6-month window, a symbolic purchase is not impossible but the structural incentives all point against it.
Considering counterfactual scenarios that would lead to a purchase: (1) CEO makes a symbolic buy to signal conviction after sell-only pattern is flagged -- possible but tech executives rarely respond to this governance concern. (2) A board member makes a small purchase -- board members at tech companies also rarely buy on open market. (3) Stock pulls back significantly creating a bargain opportunity -- possible over 6 months but not the base case given momentum. The committee found that compensation structure (RSUs and options) creates sufficient alignment without open-market buying. The CTO Bergman's programmatic selling pattern further reinforces the sell-only culture at Fastly.
This is a monitoring trigger question with MEDIUM priority. The committee found the 19:0 insider pattern has structural roots in compensation design -- RSU-based, not open-market culture. Tech companies in the $1-5B market cap range with new management teams receiving large equity grants almost never see open-market insider purchases in the first year. The elevated stock price (~$16 post-surge) further reduces bargain motivation. The 6-month window is reasonably long, but even stretching the base rate to account for multiple potential buyers (CEO, CFO, board members), the structural disincentives dominate.
The data is clear: 19 sells, 0 buys, stock doubled, new execs have large RSU grants. Tech insiders do not buy on the open market as a norm -- especially not when the stock has just surged 64-88%. The base rate for any insider open-market purchase at a growth-stage tech company over 6 months is roughly 10-15%. Fastly's specific dynamics (sell-only history, RSU-heavy compensation, elevated price) push it toward the lower end. The only wild card is a symbolic buy to counter the narrative-reality gap, but executives rarely optimize for that signal.
The 6-month window (Feb-Aug 2026) is meaningful -- it provides multiple potential triggers for insider buying (board meetings, earnings cycles, stock price movements). But every structural factor argues against a purchase: (1) elevated stock price at ~$16, (2) large RSU grants already provide alignment, (3) established 19:0 selling culture, (4) tech sector norms against open-market buying. The new CEO has been in seat for 8 months with no purchase. The new CFO received $8M in RSUs -- there is minimal incentive to deploy personal capital. I give slight additional probability for the extended time horizon.
The stock surge is the key anchoring fact: insiders who might have considered a conviction purchase at ~$8-9 now face a ~$16 price point. The cost of a meaningful signal buy has doubled. Meanwhile, RSU vesting at the new higher price provides substantial alignment -- CFO Wong's $8M grant is now worth considerably more post-surge. The compensation structure effectively substitutes for open-market buying as an alignment mechanism. Combined with the tech sector's structural aversion to open-market insider purchases, the probability is in the low teens.
19:0 sell-to-buy ratio. Tech insiders rarely buy on open market. New execs have large RSU grants providing alignment. Stock doubled post-earnings making purchases more expensive. The base rate is low and Fastly-specific factors reinforce the NO case.
Base rate for tech insider open-market buying is roughly 10-15% over 6 months. Fastly-specific factors (elevated price, RSU-heavy compensation, 19:0 sell pattern, CTO programmatic selling) push this toward the floor. No insider has demonstrated personal conviction via buying despite 8+ months of tenure for new management.
Six-month window provides some probability mass for tail scenarios, but structural factors strongly favor NO. New management alignment achieved via RSUs substitutes for open-market buying. Stock at elevated levels post-64-88% surge. The committee's finding that compensation design creates a sell-only culture is well-supported by the 19:0 ratio.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if any Fastly officer or director files a Form 4 with the SEC reporting an open-market purchase or 10b5-1 plan purchase of FSLY common stock between February 12, 2026 and August 15, 2026. Exercises of stock options or vesting of RSUs do NOT count. The purchase must be a discretionary acquisition of shares. Resolves NO if no qualifying insider purchase is filed by the resolution date.
Resolution Source
SEC EDGAR Form 4 filings for Fastly, Inc. (CIK 0001517413)
Source Trigger
Insider buying appears
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