Will Fastly's Q1 2026 year-over-year revenue growth meet or exceed 18%?

The acceleration trend (8% to 10% to 13% to 23%) is genuine per committee findings. Q4 was boosted by holiday streaming seasonality (~12% of revenue), but even removing a seasonal bump of $4-6M, the underlying trend reaches 15-18% by Q1. RPO at $353.8M (+55%) with $247.7M current provides strong forward visibility. The $157.1M threshold is actually below the implied FY 2026 quarterly average of $160.7M, suggesting management's own guidance embeds meeting this target. NRR at 110% (up from 102%) means existing customers are expanding significantly. The key risk is that Q4-to-Q1 sequential decline was 9% last year ($146M to $133.1M), but improving fundamentals argue for a smaller decline this year, landing Q1 at $160-164M.

The gap between Q4's 23% growth and FY 2026 guidance of ~14% midpoint is management's own signal that Q4 was seasonally inflated. Management knows their business better than external models. Q1 is historically Fastly's weakest quarter -- last year's Q4-to-Q1 sequential decline was 9%. The 76% usage-based revenue model makes quarterly predictions inherently volatile. Gross retention declining from 99.0% to 98.7% signals underlying customer health deterioration that expansion metrics are masking. The RPO recast in Q3 2025 introduces measurement uncertainty. While the threshold of $157.1M is near the implied quarterly average, Q1 is likely below-average given seasonality, potentially landing at $152-158M -- right around the threshold but with meaningful downside risk.

The implied math is instructive: Q4 2024 was $146.0M, Q1 2025 was $133.1M -- a 9% sequential decline. If Q4 2025's $172.6M sees a similar 9% decline, Q1 2026 would be $157.1M -- landing exactly at the threshold. But the business is structurally healthier: NRR improved 800bps YoY, RPO surged 55%, gross margins expanded 650bps. A smaller sequential decline of 5-6% would put Q1 at $162-164M (22-23% YoY), well above threshold. The improving price erosion trajectory (mid-teens to mid-single digits) is a structural tailwind that doesn't reverse quarter-over-quarter. However, the RPO recast and Q4 streaming seasonality introduce uncertainty. Balance of evidence leans slightly above coin-flip.

Management beat FY 2025 original guidance by $44M (7.5%). They are conservative guiders. FY 2026 guidance of $700-720M likely bakes in Q1 around $163-168M. A 5-6% sequential decline from Q4's $172.6M gives $162-164M, well above the $157.1M threshold. NRR at 110% (up from 102%) means the existing customer base alone drives 10% growth; net new customer additions and product expansion push higher. RPO at +55% with $247.7M current provides the strongest forward visibility in Fastly's history. The security segment growing 32% YoY at 21% of revenue provides a durable subscription floor. The threshold of 18% is actually modest for a business with this momentum profile.

The threshold of $157.1M is only 18% on an easy comp quarter ($133.1M was Fastly's weakest in FY 2025). FY 2026 guidance midpoint implies $160.7M average quarterly revenue -- so even an average quarter meets the threshold. RPO strength (+55%) and improving price erosion provide structural support. The key swing factor is whether the enterprise deals driving RPO translate to Q1 usage or take longer to ramp. Usage-based model (76%) introduces quarterly volatility that could go either way. The 18% threshold is near the boundary of what the underlying trend (ex-Q4 seasonal boost) was approaching -- the pre-Q4 trajectory of 8%/10%/13% with one more quarter of acceleration lands around 16-18%.

The pre-Q4 growth trajectory (8% to 10% to 13%) was accelerating by roughly 2-3pp per quarter. Extrapolating one more quarter would place Q1 2026 at 15-16% growth -- below the 18% threshold. Q4's jump to 23% appears to have overshot the trend line, likely boosted by holiday streaming traffic. If Q1 reverts toward the underlying trend rather than the Q4 overshoot, growth could land at 15-17%, missing the threshold. The Myth Meter's finding that expectations are DEMANDING creates further risk -- if the market expects 18%+, management may not have incentive to pull forward revenue to that level, instead managing expectations for sustainable long-term growth. Gross retention declining 99.0% to 98.7% is an early warning sign.

Revenue acceleration trend (8% to 10% to 13% to 23%) is genuine per committee. Even adjusting for Q4 seasonality, underlying trend reaches ~16-18% by Q1. RPO +55% and NRR 110% support continued acceleration. FY guidance is conservative based on management's 7.5% beat track record. Threshold at $157.1M is below implied quarterly average of $160.7M. Lean YES.

Q4 streaming seasonality is real -- 12% of revenue gets Q4 traffic bump that doesn't repeat in Q1. Historical Q4-to-Q1 sequential decline was 9% last year. Even with improvement to 6-7% decline, Q1 lands at $160-162M -- above threshold but not by much. Usage-based revenue (76%) could produce downside surprise. Price erosion could revert. True coin-flip given competing signals.

Threshold of $157.1M is modest given RPO strength and improving NRR. FY guide implies Q1 near this level. Management has a track record of conservative guidance ($44M FY 2025 beat). Main risk is Q4 seasonal effect being larger than expected. More likely than not to meet threshold given RPO forward visibility and subscription security revenue growing 32%.