Will FTAI's FY2026 Business Segment Adjusted EBITDA reach $1.525B (low end of guidance)?

FY2025 EBITDA was $1.191B. Guidance of $1.525B requires 28% growth. FTAI has a track record of meeting/exceeding guidance. AP segment grew 76% in FY2025. However, the short seller thesis questions whether reported EBITDA reflects real economics. If margins compress from inventory revaluation or revenue reclassification, the target becomes harder. 55%.

Management raised guidance from an initial lower range, suggesting confidence in achievability. Module production scaling from 757 to 1,000 provides volume growth. PMA Part #3 approval could add margin tailwind. 60%.

The question is whether FTAI reports $1.525B adjusted EBITDA -- this is the adjusted metric management controls. Even if the underlying economics are questioned, management can achieve reported targets through the same inter-segment transfers that short sellers critique. The reported number will likely hit guidance; whether it reflects real economics is a different question. 58%.

Management guidance track record is strong. 28% growth is aggressive but within recent trajectory. Regulatory disruption is the main risk to missing. 55%.

AP EBITDA guidance is $1.05B (vs $671M in FY2025 = 56% growth) plus Aviation Leasing at $575M. The AP growth is ambitious but volume supports it. Aviation Leasing at $575M is modest growth. 62%.

Macro headwinds (interest rates, airline capex cycles) could dampen leasing segment. AP depends on module execution. Overall slightly above coin flip. 55%.

Management usually meets guidance. 28% growth is achievable given recent trajectory. 58%.

Raised guidance suggests high confidence. Volume growth supports target. 60%.

Slightly above 50% due to track record, offset by aggressive growth requirements. 55%.