GHActive

Will Shield receive ACS guideline inclusion by year-end 2026?

Resolves January 15, 2027(281d)

IG: 0.80

Current Prediction

45%

Likely No

Model Agreement92%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

ACS guideline inclusion is a binary regulatory catalyst that would significantly expand the addressable market and validate the screening use case.

REGULATORY_EXPOSURECOMPETITIVE_POSITION

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 43% – 47%Aggregate: 45%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

47%

Guideline bodies are independent and operate on their own timelines. Management expectation of near-term inclusion is hopeful but not deterministic. ACS review processes can take longer than expected.

Independent guideline bodyManagement hopes vs realityReview timing uncertain

opusRun 2

43%

The ACS has historically been deliberate in guideline updates. Even with strong clinical evidence, the process involves committee review, evidence grading, and publication. By year-end 2026 is specific and may not align with ACS timelines.

ACS is deliberateCommittee process takes timeYear-end deadline specific

opusRun 3

45%

FDA approval and CMS coverage support the evidence base. ECLIPSE trial data is strong. But guideline inclusion is a separate process with its own timeline.

FDA/CMS support evidenceECLIPSE data strongSeparate process with own timeline

sonnetRun 1

45%

Near coin-flip with slight lean NO. Guideline bodies are unpredictable in timing. FDA approval helps but does not guarantee ACS action in 2026.

Unpredictable timingFDA helps but not guaranteeSlight lean NO

sonnetRun 2

43%

ACS guideline updates are infrequent events. The probability of one occurring within a specific calendar year is lower than it might seem, even with management expectations.

Infrequent updatesCalendar year constraintLower than it seems

sonnetRun 3

47%

Strong clinical evidence and management expectation provide some positive signal. If ACS has already begun the review process, year-end 2026 is feasible.

Strong evidenceIf review already started, feasibleManagement signal

haikuRun 1

45%

Guideline timing is hard to predict. Slight lean NO based on institutional process timelines.

Hard to predictInstitutional processSlight lean NO

haikuRun 2

43%

ACS operates independently. Year-end 2026 may be too specific a deadline.

Independent bodyToo specific deadlineBelow coin-flip

haikuRun 3

47%

Management expects near future. If they have informal signals from ACS, this could be higher. But absent that visibility, ~47%.

Management expects near futureInformal signals possible47% without visibility

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if ACS publishes updated guidelines that include Shield or blood-based CRC screening by December 31, 2026. Resolves NO if not included.

Resolution Source

ACS published guidelines or Guardant Health press releases

Source Trigger

ACS guideline inclusion expected in near future per management; would be significant positive catalyst for Shield adoption

regulatory-readerREGULATORY_EXPOSUREHIGH

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