GHActive

Will GH total revenue exceed $900M in FY2026?

Resolves February 28, 2027(325d)

IG: 0.64

Current Prediction

55%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement94%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Revenue growth tests whether the multi-product portfolio can deliver the topline growth demanded by the valuation.

REVENUE_DURABILITYOPERATIONAL_EXECUTION

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 53% – 57%Aggregate: 55%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

57%

Core oncology business is growing steadily and Shield adds incremental revenue. 25-35% growth trajectory supports $900M. Management has consistently exceeded guidance. Slight lean YES.

Strong growth trajectoryShield adds incrementalManagement execution

opusRun 2

53%

Revenue growth is more predictable than margin improvement for diagnostics companies. Core franchise is mature enough to grow reliably. Shield adds variable upside.

Revenue more predictableCore franchise reliableShield variable upside

opusRun 3

55%

The $900M threshold is achievable with continued core growth plus modest Shield contribution. Management track record supports achievement. ~55%.

Achievable with moderate executionManagement track recordCore plus Shield

sonnetRun 1

55%

Multiple revenue drivers support growth. Shield ramp, even if below the 210K target, adds meaningful revenue at $1,495/test.

Multiple revenue driversShield adds meaningful revenueEven below target, contributes

sonnetRun 2

53%

Core business growth is relatively reliable. The question is whether Shield adds enough to push above $900M. If Shield underperforms, core alone may not reach $900M.

Core reliableShield contribution uncertainMay fall short without Shield

sonnetRun 3

57%

Revenue momentum is strong. Even modest execution on Shield plus core growth should reach $900M. Management has strong topline execution.

Strong momentumModest execution sufficientStrong topline execution

haikuRun 1

55%

Growth trajectory supports $900M. Multiple products contributing. ~55%.

Growth trajectoryMultiple products55%

haikuRun 2

53%

Reliable core plus Shield upside. Achievable with average execution. ~53%.

Reliable coreShield upsideAverage execution

haikuRun 3

55%

Slight lean YES based on growth trajectory and multi-product portfolio.

Slight lean YESGrowth trajectoryMulti-product

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if FY2026 total revenue exceeds $900M. Resolves NO if at or below $900M.

Resolution Source

Guardant Health FY2026 earnings release

Source Trigger

Multi-product revenue growth tests whether portfolio can deliver topline growth demanded by valuation

gravy-gaugeREVENUE_DURABILITYHIGH

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