GISActive

Will GIS FY2026 adjusted EPS meet or exceed the low end of guidance?

Resolves July 15, 2026(97d)

IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

62%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement96%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

EPS meeting low-end guidance tests whether the investment year delivers at minimum acceptable levels.

FUNDING_FRAGILITYREVENUE_DURABILITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 60% – 63%Aggregate: 62%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

63%

GIS set a wide guidance range (10-15% decline). Meeting the low end (10% decline) is the less demanding threshold. CLEAN accounting and DISCIPLINED operations support execution. Q4 has mechanical tailwinds.

Wide guidance rangeLow end is less demandingQ4 mechanical tailwinds

opusRun 2

60%

Consumer staples companies typically meet low-end guidance ~60-70% of the time. GIS has clean accounting and HMM productivity (5% of COGS) as a structural cost offset.

60-70% base rateClean accountingHMM productivity offset

opusRun 3

62%

The investment year was a deliberate choice with managed EPS compression. Management likely sized the guidance range to be achievable. Q4 trade timing of ~$100M provides meaningful cushion.

Deliberate managed compressionAchievable guidance rangeQ4 trade timing cushion

sonnetRun 1

62%

Conservative staples company with clean operations. Low-end guidance should be achievable unless consumer environment deteriorates significantly.

Conservative companyClean operationsConsumer environment risk

sonnetRun 2

60%

Input cost inflation (3% base + 1-2% tariffs) creates headwind. But HMM and trade timing provide offsets. Net assessment: likely to meet low end.

Input cost headwindHMM offsetLikely to meet low end

sonnetRun 3

63%

Management set guidance with visibility into cost trends and trade timing. Low end accounts for reasonable adversity.

Set with visibilityAccounts for adversityReasonable confidence

haikuRun 1

62%

Low end of wide guidance range. Clean staples company. ~62%.

Low endClean company62%

haikuRun 2

60%

Base rate supports. Q4 tailwinds help. ~60%.

Base rateQ4 tailwinds60%

haikuRun 3

63%

Achievable with managed compression and mechanical tailwinds. ~63%.

AchievableManaged compression63%

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if FY2026 adjusted diluted EPS meets or exceeds the low end of the guided range (10% decline from FY2025). Resolves NO if below the low end.

Resolution Source

General Mills FY2026 earnings release

Source Trigger

EPS guided down 10-15% for FY2026 investment year; Q4 recovery dependent on trade timing and 53rd week

stress-scannerFUNDING_FRAGILITYMEDIUM

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