GPKActive

Will GPK report FY2026 adjusted EBITDA above $1.15 billion (guidance midpoint)?

Resolves February 28, 2027(325d)

IG: 0.64

Current Prediction

48%

Likely No

Model Agreement96%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 9, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Full-year EBITDA is the definitive test of whether GPK's earnings power is stabilizing or continuing to deteriorate. The $1.15B midpoint already reflects significant headwinds ($100M incentive comp restoration, $150M price/volume, curtailment costs). Missing the midpoint would confirm that the Vision 2030 abandonment reflects structural rather than cyclical deterioration.

ACCOUNTING_INTEGRITYFUNDING_FRAGILITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 45% – 52%Aggregate: 48%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

52%

The $1.15B midpoint already embeds known headwinds ($100M comp restoration, $150M price/volume, $85M curtailments). A new CEO typically sets achievable guidance for his first year. H2 should benefit from curtailment cost relief and Waco efficiency gains. However, the guidance assumes Q4 2025-level pricing persists — if overcapacity worsens, the midpoint may not be achievable. Slight lean YES based on new CEO conservatism.

New CEO incentive to beat initial guidanceKnown headwinds already embedded in midpointH2 curtailment relief is a tailwindOvercapacity risk to pricing assumptions

opusRun 2

48%

The guidance range is wide ($1.050B-$1.250B) reflecting genuine uncertainty. Hitting the midpoint requires Q1 at or near the $200-240M range, moderate Q2, and strong H2. If Q1 is at the low end ($200M) and Q2 continues to face curtailment costs, H2 would need to deliver ~$750M — about $375M per quarter, which is close to the FY2025 quarterly average. This is achievable but requires multiple things to go right. Near coin-flip.

Wide guidance range reflects genuine uncertaintyH2 must deliver ~$750M to hit midpointMultiple things must go rightNear coin-flip

opusRun 3

50%

Balanced assessment. The guidance midpoint is designed to be achievable — management typically aims for the middle of their range. But GPK has a pattern of missing targets (Vision 2030 abandoned). The interplay between curtailment costs, pricing pressure, and demand trends creates genuine uncertainty. The Transformation Office cost savings could provide upside. True coin-flip.

Guidance midpoint is designed to be achievablePattern of target misses creates skepticismTransformation Office savings are potential upsideTrue coin-flip

sonnetRun 1

45%

The $1.15B midpoint requires overcoming $100M in comp restoration, $150M in price/volume headwinds, and curtailment costs — while relying on Waco efficiency gains and cost reductions that are largely unquantified. Pricing pressure from bleached paperboard overcapacity is structural and may worsen. The pattern of Vision 2030 abandonment suggests management has historically overestimated earnings trajectory. Lean NO.

Multiple headwinds exceed quantified tailwindsPricing pressure may worsen beyond assumptionsPattern of overestimating earnings trajectoryLean NO

sonnetRun 2

50%

Guidance midpoints are typically set to be achievable but not easy. The new CEO needs to establish credibility, which argues for conservative guidance. However, the macro environment (tariff uncertainty, consumer softness) creates downside risks beyond company-specific factors. Balanced at coin-flip.

CEO credibility incentive argues for conservative guidanceMacro environment creates downside riskTariff uncertainty adds complexityBalanced assessment

sonnetRun 3

47%

The headwinds are heavily quantified ($100M + $150M + $85M = $335M in identified headwinds) while tailwinds are mostly qualitative (Waco efficiency, Transformation Office, cost reductions). This asymmetry — quantified downside vs. qualitative upside — suggests risk is skewed to the downside. Lean NO.

Quantified headwinds ($335M) vs. qualitative tailwindsRisk asymmetry skewed to downsideWaco efficiency gains unquantifiedLean NO

haikuRun 1

48%

New CEO conservatism vs. structural headwinds. Near coin-flip, slight lean NO based on headwind magnitude.

CEO conservatism argues YESStructural headwinds argue NONear coin-flip

haikuRun 2

50%

Guidance midpoint designed to be achievable. But multiple risks could push below. Balanced.

Midpoint designed to be achievableMultiple downside risksBalanced

haikuRun 3

47%

Headwinds are better quantified than tailwinds. Pattern of guidance misses. Slight lean NO.

Quantified headwinds exceed quantified tailwindsGuidance miss patternSlight lean NO

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if GPK reports FY2026 reported adjusted EBITDA of $1.15 billion or above. Resolves NO if below $1.15 billion.

Resolution Source

GPK Q4 2026 earnings release or FY2026 10-K filing

Source Trigger

Vision 2030 abandonment confirmed by 2 lenses as material deterioration

fugazi-filterACCOUNTING_INTEGRITYHIGH

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