Will combined hyperscaler capex (MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, META) grow above 30% YoY in H1 2026?
Why This Question Matters
Hyperscaler capex is the primary demand driver for 3 of 4 constituents (ETN data center orders +200%, VRT ~85-90% DC exposure, NVT DC +67%). The Sector Regime lens identifies capex deceleration below 20% YoY as a trigger shifting regime transition probability from 15-25% to 40-50%. Growth above 30% confirms the AI capex cycle is sustaining the demand acceleration underpinning GROWTH_EXPANSION. Deceleration toward 20% signals the beginning of demand/supply convergence as grid-equipment capacity expansions come online in 2027-2028.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if the combined reported capital expenditure (including finance leases where disclosed) of Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta for H1 2026 (Q1+Q2) exceeds 130% of their combined H1 2025 capital expenditure. Data sourced from each company's 10-Q filings for Q1 and Q2 2026. Uses capital expenditure as reported on the cash flow statement, not PP&E additions.
Resolution Source
MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, META Q2 2026 10-Q filings (cash flow statement capital expenditure line)
Source Trigger
Hyperscaler capex trajectory is the primary demand driver for 3 of 4 constituents. Deceleration below 20% YoY while capacity ramps triggers demand/supply convergence risk and regime shift.
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