Will Goldman Sachs execute less than $3B of common stock buybacks in Q2 2026?

Management committed to continuing aggressive capital return publicly on the Q1 call. A drop below $3B would be interpreted as capital caution and likely trigger de-rating. Management will avoid that signal unless forced by a CET1 constraint. Base case is moderation to $3.5-4.5B. Below $3B probability is ~35-40% — meaningful but not base case.

The 150bps CET1 drop is hard to repeat and management is likely to moderate substantially. A $3-4B range is the likely Q2 pace, with the exact number depending on Q2 market conditions, PCL trajectory, and regulatory signals. Below $3B probability is 40-45% because management may want to preserve flexibility for Q3-Q4 distributions.

I estimate 40% — essentially coin-flip on whether management moderates to just above $3B or just below. The CET1 math almost forces moderation; the question is magnitude. Given management's commitment to return and the favorable Basel III direction, they probably aim to stay at or above $3B to avoid signaling.

Historical quarterly pace is $3-5B for GS. The Q1 2026 $5B was the peak. Return to trend would be $3.5-4.5B. Below $3B requires active deceleration beyond trend reversion. 35% probability — possible but not the natural path.

Management has levers and will use them. The question is aggressiveness. If CET1 is approaching 12.3% and PCL is elevated, moderation to $2.5-3B is prudent. If conditions stabilize, $3.5-4B is more likely. 38% reflects uncertainty about which path management chooses.

36%. The CET1 math plus management conservatism suggests meaningful moderation, but the $3B level is likely a psychological floor management wants to maintain. They will probably land at $3-3.5B rather than below.

The record $5B Q1 pace is unsustainable. Q2 will moderate. The range $2.5-4B is plausible, centered around $3-3.5B. Probability of below $3B: 40%.

38%. Moderation is likely but magnitude uncertain. Below $3B is meaningful but not base case.

39%. Roughly 40/60 odds on below/above $3B. The central tendency is $3-3.5B so the threshold is right at the edge.