Will Goldman Sachs report Q2 2026 total net revenues above $14.0B?

$14B is roughly at the steady-state run-rate floor. Durable revenue base (~$7.6B) plus even modestly weaker cyclical ($6-7B) gets to $13.6-14.6B range. A Q2 below $14B requires a significant cyclical miss — intermediation weakness + investment banking slowdown simultaneously. Most likely Q2 is in the $14-16B range. Probability above $14B: 70-75%.

The backlog is robust, AWM inflows are durable, financing revenues are at records. Even if investment banking normalizes sharply (e.g., advisory back to $800M from $1.5B), the remaining pieces easily support $14B+. 74% probability.

70% — I weight slightly lower than peers because the Q1 strength in intermediation could reverse sharply if volatility moderates. Falling $3B+ from Q1 is a real scenario if multiple segments weaken simultaneously. But base case stays above $14B.

GS has not posted a quarter below $14B in recent memory excluding extreme stress periods. The durability thesis makes a sub-$14B quarter unlikely absent a significant shock. 72%.

70%. Base case Q2 $14.5-15.5B. Falling below $14B requires about 18% Q/Q decline which is unusual for GS in a non-crisis quarter.

73%. The durable revenue floor plus reasonable cyclical makes $14B a relatively low bar. Probability is elevated but not extreme because of the unavoidable volatility in investment banking fees.

72%. Central tendency Q2 revenue ~$15B, with distribution range $13.5-16.5B. Probability above $14B is ~72%.

73%. Base case is above $14B; the tail risk is a shock to IB activity + intermediation simultaneously.

71%. Close to 70-75% range. The $14B bar is moderately low relative to GS's operating run-rate in 2025-2026.