Will Apple represent more than 65% of Globalstar's FY2026 revenue?

Trend extrapolation: 2023→2024 was +9pp; 2024→2025 was +5pp (decelerating). Linear extrapolation suggests +3-4pp in 2025→2026 = 66-67%, exceeding 65%. However, Phase 2 activation is the wildcard — if launch is delayed, Apple revenue uplift in 2026 is muted, allowing non-Apple to keep pace. If launch succeeds and Phase 2 service period activates, Apple revenue uplift accelerates. The trajectory of decelerating rate suggests structural factors (non-Apple growth) are partially offsetting Apple growth. I assess 45% probability — slightly below coin-flip due to potential Phase 2 delay reducing Apple uplift.

Phase 2 service activation will drive Apple revenue uplift in 2026 from performance bonuses + Infrastructure Prepayment recoupment beginning. Even modest activation (e.g., Q4 2026) could push Apple revenue from $172M (2025) toward $190-200M, while non-Apple grows from $101M to $108-110M. That math: Apple $195M / total $305M = 64% (just under 65%); Apple $200M / total $300M = 67% (above). Outcome distribution centers near 65% threshold — coin flip.

Counter view: management is incentivized to manage the optics around Apple concentration given investor sensitivity. They may emphasize equipment + IoT + government in 2026 specifically to moderate the concentration trend. Q4 2025 already showed strong equipment growth (+31% YoY). If management succeeds in growing non-Apple revenue at +10-15% in 2026, concentration could stabilize at 62-64%. The Phase 2 uplift offsetting this is uncertain. I weight 42% — slightly below coin-flip favoring stabilization narrative.

Decompose into four components: (a) base Apple service revenue growth ex-Phase 2 = +5-8% (similar to 2025); (b) Phase 2 service activation uplift = $0-25M depending on timing; (c) non-Apple service revenue growth = +5-8%; (d) equipment revenue growth = +20-30%. Multiple scenarios: if Phase 2 activates in Q3-Q4 2026 with $15M uplift, Apple = $191M, non-Apple+equipment = $112M, total = $303M, concentration = 63%. If Phase 2 fully activates with $25M uplift, Apple = $201M, total = $313M, concentration = 64.2%. If Phase 2 delays past 2026, Apple = $185M, non-Apple = $108M, total = $293M, concentration = 63.1%. Most scenarios cluster near 63-64%, just below threshold. ~48% probability of exceeding 65%.

The trajectory bias is upward — three consecutive years of increase. Even with decelerating rate, the underlying mechanisms (Apple's expanding service uplift, 85% capacity reservation, performance bonuses) systematically favor Apple growth over non-Apple growth. Phase 2 service activation likely happens in some form in 2026 (even partial). Non-Apple revenue cannot grow at meaningful pace from $101M base while Apple is structurally growing. Slight lean above coin flip toward YES at 52%.

The 65% threshold is somewhat arbitrary — true concentration in 2026 will likely be in 62-67% range. If forced to pick a side: I lean slightly NO at 45% because (a) the rate of concentration increase has decelerated each year, (b) management commentary has emphasized diversification, and (c) Phase 2 timing uncertainty creates downside risk for Apple uplift.

Trend bias upward (49 → 58 → 63 over 3 years), but rate decelerating. Phase 2 activation likely partial in 2026. Non-Apple revenue too small to materially offset. Centered near coin flip leaning slightly NO at 45%.

Math suggests centered near 64% concentration in 2026, with wide dispersion based on Phase 2 timing and non-Apple growth. ~48% probability of exceeding 65%.

True coin flip — centered at 65% threshold with roughly symmetric outcome distribution. 50%.