Will HD's FY2026 comparable sales growth come in at or above the low end of guidance (0%)?

FY2025 delivered +0.3% comps in a frozen housing market — barely positive but positive. The question asks whether FY2026 will be >= 0%, a relatively low bar. Tariff pass-through (~3% of SKUs) provides a modest ticket tailwind. Big-ticket comps turning positive (+1.3%) and online +11% are encouraging demand signals. The 2008-2010 analog shows negative comps required genuine recession, not just housing freeze. Storm compare normalization helps H2. However, FY2025 guidance started at +1% and delivered +0.3%, indicating slight management optimism bias. Comp transactions declining at -1.6% is the key risk — if ticket growth normalizes while transactions stay negative, comps could go negative.

FY2025 guidance history is concerning — started at +1%, got cut to 'slightly positive', delivered +0.3%. If FY2026 repeats this ~70bp miss pattern from the low end of guidance (0%), that yields -0.7% comps which resolves NO. Comp transactions are -1.6% and trending worse. Pro backlogs 'starting to diminish' signals potential weakening of the 50% revenue segment. Q1 expected negative EPS growth suggests tough start. However, 0% is still a low bar — HD would need meaningfully worse conditions than FY2025 to miss it. Tariff pricing provides an artificial but real ticket boost. Back-half storm normalization provides structural tailwind.

The critical factor is whether comp transactions stabilize or continue deteriorating. Q4 was -1.6% transactions offset by +2.4% ticket. Tariff pricing (~3% SKU impact) actually supports ticket growth, providing a buffer. The Pro segment at 50% revenue has been more resilient — backlogs 'starting to diminish' suggests gradual, not abrupt, weakening. FY2025 Q2 showed HD can achieve +1.0% comps in favorable conditions even without housing recovery. The back-half loading with storm compare normalization provides a structural tailwind. The low bar of 0% (not the +2% high end) makes this more achievable. However, if consumer confidence deteriorates or Pro demand weakens meaningfully, the ticket-only growth model is fragile.

HD just delivered +0.3% in FY2025 with zero housing help. The 0% threshold is essentially asking 'will things get worse than FY2025?' For things to get materially worse, you'd need consumer recession or significant Pro segment deterioration — neither is the base case. Tariff pass-through is a modest ticket tailwind that didn't exist in FY2025. Storm comps normalize in H2. Management guided flat to +2% without assuming recovery — this is conservative anchoring. The proven 2008-2010 resilience (only -7-8% trough during worst recession in decades) shows HD's demand floor is well above where negative comps would require conditions to be.

FY2025 guidance started at +1% and delivered +0.3% — a 70bp miss. If FY2026 repeats this pattern (guided flat to +2%, deliver bottom minus 70bp), that's -0.7% comps resolving NO. Comp transactions declining at -1.6% with Pro backlogs softening creates downside risk. Q1 expected negative EPS growth suggests a rough start. However, tariff pricing supports ticket and storm compare normalization helps H2. The consumer environment is stressed but not recessionary. HD's maintenance/repair demand floor (MRO, aging housing stock) provides a structural buffer. The guidance miss risk is real but the low 0% bar provides margin.

The 0% bar is low. HD maintained positive comps through FY2025 (+0.3%) despite a frozen housing market — structurally the hardest environment for home improvement. For FY2026 to go negative, housing would need to get WORSE (unlikely — already near 30-year lows in turnover) or consumer recession would need to materialize (possible but not base case). Tariff pricing provides a mechanical ticket boost directly supporting comps. Big-ticket recovery (+1.3%) signals Pro/project demand stabilizing. Online +11% provides incremental support. The main risk is a consumer pullback hitting transaction volumes further, but absent recession, 0%+ is the base case.

FY2025 delivered +0.3% comps in worst housing environment in decades. Housing still frozen but not worsening. Tariff pricing helps ticket. Storm compare normalization benefits H2. The 0% bar is low — HD would need conditions worse than FY2025, which requires consumer recession. Base case: HD scratches out flat to +1% again.

FY2025 guidance miss (guided +1%, got +0.3%) is a cautionary signal that could repeat. Transactions declining at -1.6%. Pro backlogs softening. Q1 expected weak. But 0% is a low bar. Tariff pricing helps ticket. 2008-2010 precedent shows negative comps need genuine recession. Unless consumer recession materializes, positive comps are the base case.

HD achieved positive comps in the worst housing environment in decades (+0.3%). Tariff pricing provides a new tailwind via ticket growth. Storm compare normalization helps H2. Guidance already assumes no housing recovery — management set a conservative bar. Unless consumer recession hits, 0%+ comps are achievable. Main downside: Pro segment weakening faster than expected.