Will HIMS report Q4 2025 weight loss specialty revenue below $175M?

The FY2025 math is the most credible anchor. Weight loss ~31% of $2,347.6M = ~$728M FY. H1 totals were approximately $420M (Q1 $230M + Q2 $190M). That leaves H2 implied at ~$308M. The FDA compounding gray zone was primarily a Q3 2025 event — compounding pharmacies ramped down in Q3, meaning Q3 was likely the stronger H2 quarter. If Q3 was in the $155-175M range, Q4 would be $133-153M. Even if Q3 was weaker at $140M, Q4 would be ~$168M — still below $175M. The 70%+ weight loss subscriber growth in Q4 is a unit count figure, not a revenue figure; per-subscriber revenue compressed significantly as the product shifted to lower-price tiers. The $65M Q1 2026 cadence headwind confirms Q4 was still in a transitional, lower-revenue-per-subscriber configuration. Central estimate: ~$155M. Probability of below $175M: 72%.

Approaching this from the subscriber economics angle. Q4 weight loss subscribers were growing 70%+ YoY but starting from a low base. The shift to personalized compounded GLP-1 at lower price points ($199-249/month vs brand-name equivalents) means average revenue per weight loss subscriber compressed. With ~$728M FY and H1 at $420M, the H2 total is ~$308M. The company's deliberate non-disclosure of the weight loss line item is itself a signal — they avoided the breakout because the Q4 number would have been disappointing relative to the bull thesis. Management's language around $65M cadence headwind in Q1 2026 suggests Q4 was still in a ramp/transition. Most likely Q4 was in the $145-165M range. Probability of YES: 68%, reflecting the strong math but acknowledging the $145-185M uncertainty range.

The most cautious of the opus runs. The derived range of $145-185M straddles the $175M threshold meaningfully. The upper end of the range ($185M) represents a scenario where Q3 2025 was significantly weaker (perhaps only $123M due to the FDA compounding disruption peak in mid-2025) and Q4 recovered strongly on the 70%+ subscriber growth. This scenario is less probable but not negligible. The resolution criteria add additional uncertainty: 'resolves based on the closest comparable disclosed metric' — if the market administrator uses FY-level math rather than quarterly derivation, there may be different interpretations. The balance of evidence still favors YES (below $175M) but the uncertainty warrants a more conservative 65% rather than high conviction.

Structuring this as a base case derivation. FY2025 total revenue $2,347.6M. Weight loss as ~31% = $728M. H1 known: Q1 $230M + Q2 $190M = $420M. H2 residual: $308M. Split assumption: Q3 slightly above Q4 given compounding ramp-down dynamics. Q3 ~$160M, Q4 ~$148M. Both below $175M. Alternative scenario with Q3 at $175M gives Q4 at $133M — still below. Only a scenario where Q3 was substantially below $140M would push Q4 above $175M, and that seems inconsistent with the 70%+ subscriber growth narrative. Probability of Q4 below $175M: 70%.

Weight loss subscriber growth of 70%+ YoY in Q4 is notable and could theoretically push Q4 revenue higher than the average H2 split implies. However, subscriber counts growing 70%+ while total subscribers grew only 13% YoY suggests weight loss is a newer cohort with lower lifetime value and likely lower price points. The company was shifting these subscribers to personalized compounded GLP-1 formulations priced below brand-name alternatives. Net revenue effect: more subscribers at lower per-subscriber revenue. The $65M Q1 2026 headwind from shipping cadence changes implies Q4 2025 was running on a different (lower revenue per shipment) cadence. This supports Q4 below $175M. Probability: 67%.

Taking a more skeptical view of the derived math. The 31% estimate for weight loss's share of FY2025 revenue is itself an approximation — the actual figure could be 33-35% given 70%+ subscriber growth. At 33%: $775M FY, H2 = $355M, average $177.5M per quarter. Under this scenario, if Q3 and Q4 were roughly equal, both would be near $177.5M — above the $175M threshold. At 35%: $821M FY, H2 = $401M — clearly above. The uncertainty in the percentage estimate creates meaningful ambiguity. However, the 31% figure comes from management commentary and is more likely right than 35%. The asymmetric risk of the estimate being higher than 31% caps my confidence in YES at 63%.

Math is clear: FY weight loss ~$728M, H1 = $420M, H2 = $308M. Average Q4 = $154M. Below $175M. 70%+ subscriber growth is units, not dollars. Per-subscriber revenue declined. YES at 72%.

H2 weight loss revenue implied ~$308M split across Q3 and Q4. Even if Q3 was weaker ($140M), Q4 would be $168M — below $175M. Only if Q3 was well below $128M could Q4 exceed $175M. That scenario requires Q3 being the weakest quarter of FY2025, inconsistent with subscriber growth narrative. YES at 68%.

Some uncertainty from the resolution criteria (closest comparable metric) and the estimate imprecision in the 31% weight loss share. Balance of evidence is YES but the $145-185M range straddles $175M. 65% YES is appropriate given genuine uncertainty.