Will HIMS report Q4 2025 year-over-year subscriber growth below 15%?

The deceleration trajectory is accelerating: 38% to 31% (7pp drop) to 20% (11pp drop). If the deceleration pace even moderates to a 7-8pp drop in Q4, growth would land at 12-13% -- below the 15% threshold. The absolute subscriber count near-plateau at ~2.43M in Q3 is particularly telling, as it suggests net additions are already minimal. The GLP-1 revenue decline ($230M to $190M QoQ) directly implies GLP-1 subscriber attrition, which would drag total subscriber growth. The 70%+ personalized subscriber mix introduces broader compounding regulatory risk beyond just semaglutide. However, the Hers brand growing near triple digits and non-GLP-1 category growth of 55%+ provide real but insufficient offset momentum.

The critical question is whether the non-GLP-1 growth engines (derm 55%+, Hers near triple digits) can offset the GLP-1 subscriber bleed enough to keep total YoY growth above 15%. Working the math: if Q4 2024 had ~2.0M subscribers (implied from Q1 2025 at ~2.4M with 38% YoY growth -- Q1 2024 was ~1.74M, so Q4 2024 was likely ~1.9-2.0M), then 15% growth requires ~2.19-2.3M in Q4 2025. With Q3 at ~2.43M, the question is whether Q4 holds above that level. The sequential trend is concerning: Q2 to Q3 added only ~30K net subscribers. But the YoY comparison base is rising, making the 15% threshold mechanically easier to breach. The insider selling pattern (zero purchases, 4 sellers at $36.71) suggests management lacks conviction that the subscriber trajectory will reaccelerate.

I want to interrogate the bull case more carefully. The non-GLP-1 categories are genuinely growing: dermatology and daily sexual health both 55%+ YoY in Q2. The Hers brand near triple-digit growth is a real subscriber engine. The transition from on-demand to daily products shows 10% retention improvement at the 1-year mark. These are structural positives that could cushion the total subscriber number. However, the core ex-GLP-1 revenue being flat-to-down sequentially in Q2 complicates this -- it suggests that while category-level growth rates look impressive, the aggregate impact on total subscribers may be muted because GLP-1 was a larger share of the subscriber base than headline numbers suggest. The unresolved debate about whether total compounding dependency is 31% or 60-70% is the key swing factor. If it's 60-70%, the 15% threshold is very likely to be breached; if it's truly just 31%, growth may hold near 15-18%.

The deceleration curve speaks for itself: 38% to 31% to 20%. That's not a plateau -- it's an accelerating decline. Extrapolating even conservatively puts Q4 at 10-15% YoY. The GLP-1 headwinds are intensifying, not stabilizing, with revenue dropping $40M sequentially. The total subscriber count effectively stalled at ~2.43M. Non-GLP-1 growth looks impressive in percentage terms but operates off a smaller base and cannot offset the weight-loss subscriber bleed at scale. The insider selling with zero buying during a 60%+ decline is damning -- if management believed subscribers would reaccelerate, someone would be buying.

The math is straightforward. Q4 2024 subscribers were likely ~1.95-2.05M (interpolating between the trajectory). Q3 2025 was ~2.43M. For 15% YoY growth, Q4 2025 needs ~2.24-2.36M. That looks achievable since Q3 was already at 2.43M -- UNLESS there's been net subscriber attrition in Q4. And that's the real risk: GLP-1 subscriber churn could push total subscribers below Q3 levels. The fact that sequential growth from Q2 to Q3 was only ~30K subscribers suggests the net addition rate is near zero. If GLP-1 churn accelerates in Q4 and non-GLP-1 additions don't accelerate proportionally, total subscribers could actually decline sequentially, pushing YoY growth below 15%.

I'm less confident than my instinct suggests because there's genuine ambiguity in the subscriber math. The Q4 2024 comparison base is uncertain -- if it was lower than I estimate (say ~1.85M), then even holding flat at 2.43M would yield ~31% YoY growth. The YoY math depends heavily on the denominator. Also, Q4 is typically strong for health/wellness platforms (New Year resolution effect), and Hers growth near triple digits could add meaningful subscribers. The daily sexual health transition to 40% of the base improves retention, potentially reducing churn enough to offset GLP-1 losses. But the directional trend and insider behavior tilt the balance toward YES.

Clear deceleration pattern: 38% to 31% to 20% YoY. Each quarter drops by more than the last. Simple extrapolation puts Q4 below 15%. GLP-1 revenue falling $40M/quarter means active subscriber losses in the largest growth category. Absolute subscriber count stalled near 2.43M. Direction is clear -- growth falls below 15%.

The trend is bearish for subscriber growth: deceleration from 38% to 20% over 3 quarters with GLP-1 headwinds intensifying. Non-GLP-1 growth of 55%+ in select categories provides some offset but operates off a smaller base. The 15% threshold is reachable if non-GLP-1 subscriber engines (Hers, dermatology) maintain momentum and seasonal Q4 effects help. But the balance of evidence favors below 15%.

Deceleration from 38% to 20% in 3 quarters with the rate of decline increasing. GLP-1 revenue declining means active subscriber losses. Core ex-GLP-1 revenue flat-to-down sequentially in Q2 undermines the offset thesis. Insiders selling, not buying. Probability favors Q4 growth falling below 15%.