Will HL announce a positive preliminary economic assessment or resource upgrade at Midas by December 2026?

A PEA or resource upgrade by December 2026 requires substantial work. Currently, Midas has only an inferred resource (169K oz Au). Converting inferred to indicated requires infill drilling (typically 12-18 months of drilling followed by 6-12 months of technical report preparation). With 2 rigs deployed in 2026, drilling could be underway throughout the year, but the technical report preparation and NI 43-101 compliance take additional time. A PEA is even more involved — requires metallurgical testing, mine design, environmental baseline studies, and economic analysis. The $45-55M exploration budget is significant but covers all properties, not just Midas. Probability of either a PEA or resource upgrade by December 2026 is ~25%.

The existing infrastructure advantage (mill, permits) reduces development timeline but doesn't accelerate the resource definition process. Drill results need to be assayed, interpreted, modeled in 3D, and incorporated into resource estimates by qualified persons. Even with 2 rigs running full-time, the database may not be sufficient for a resource upgrade by December 2026. Management has not publicly committed to a PEA timeline, which is telling — they typically signal when a study is being initiated. The exploration budget increase is a commitment to drilling, not to study completion. ~20% probability.

One factor slightly increases probability: Midas has existing historical data from previous operators. The 2026 drill program may be infilling between historical holes, which could accelerate the resource conversion timeline compared to greenfield exploration. If the drill program began in Q1 2026 and produces positive results by Q3, a resource update could potentially be released by Q4 2026. However, this requires rapid execution with no delays — optimistic for a 2-rig program at a single site. A PEA by December 2026 is almost certainly too aggressive unless already in progress. Resource upgrade alone: maybe 25-30%. PEA alone: 5-10%. Either: ~22%.

The question asks for either a PEA OR resource upgrade — two paths to YES increases the probability. A resource upgrade from inferred to indicated is the more likely of the two. With 2 rigs running and a significantly increased budget, Hecla is clearly serious about advancing Midas. If drilling began in Q1 2026 and the first phase of infill results are positive, management could publish an updated resource estimate by Q4 2026. This is aggressive but feasible for a company of Hecla's size and with existing geological models from Midas's operating history. ~28%.

Exploration is inherently uncertain. Even with significant investment, results may not support a resource upgrade if drill holes don't intersect sufficient mineralization in the right locations. The inferred-to-indicated conversion requires close-spaced drilling that demonstrates geological continuity. If any drilling results are disappointing, the entire program may pivot to target definition rather than resource conversion. The timeline is tight for a 2026 deliverable. ~22%.

High silver and gold prices provide maximum economic incentive to advance projects quickly. Hecla's 4-5x increase in exploration budget signals urgency. The existing mill and permits at Midas reduce the decision barriers — management doesn't need to justify greenfield development, just resource confidence. This economic motivation could compress timelines. However, geology doesn't care about economics. The probability is ~25% — low but reflecting the strong economic incentive and multiple paths to YES.

PEA or resource upgrade by December 2026 is aggressive. Mining studies take time. With drilling just beginning in 2026, results analysis and report preparation push deliverables toward 2027. ~20% probability.

The exploration stage is very early. Only inferred resources exist. Converting to indicated or completing a PEA requires multiple seasons of work. The 2026 budget is the investment phase — results and studies come later. ~18% probability.

Existing infrastructure and historical data provide some acceleration potential. But the baseline probability of a mining resource upgrade within a calendar year of program commencement is low. Two rigs help but can't compress geological and technical timelines below minimum thresholds. ~22%.