JOBYActive

Will Joby's FY2026 total revenue exceed $120M?

Resolves March 15, 2027(363d)

IG: 0.56

Current Prediction

62%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement82%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 16, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Revenue guidance is $105-150M (mostly Blade). Achieving the upper half would validate Blade integration and management credibility. Missing the low end would signal Blade underperformance and management guidance unreliability.

REVENUE_DURABILITYOPERATIONAL_EXECUTION

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 58% – 67%Aggregate: 62%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

61%

Analysis-grounded opus run 1

Committee findings

opusRun 2

64%

Analysis-grounded opus run 2

Committee findings

opusRun 3

67%

Analysis-grounded opus run 3

Committee findings

sonnetRun 1

58%

Analysis-grounded sonnet run 1

Committee findings

sonnetRun 2

61%

Analysis-grounded sonnet run 2

Committee findings

sonnetRun 3

64%

Analysis-grounded sonnet run 3

Committee findings

haikuRun 1

59%

Analysis-grounded haiku run 1

Committee findings

haikuRun 2

62%

Analysis-grounded haiku run 2

Committee findings

haikuRun 3

65%

Analysis-grounded haiku run 3

Committee findings

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if FY2026 total revenue exceeds $120M.

Resolution Source

Joby 10-K or earnings release

Source Trigger

FY2026 revenue meets guidance midpoint

regulatory-readerREVENUE_DURABILITYMEDIUM

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