JOBYActive

Will a regulatory investigation be opened against Joby related to Archer allegations by Dec 31, 2026?

Resolves January 31, 2027(320d)

IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

18%

Likely No

Model Agreement85%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 16, 2026

Why This Question Matters

The Archer countersuit alleging Chinese materials misclassification could trigger regulatory action. An actual investigation would escalate REGULATORY_EXPOSURE and potentially disrupt the defense variant partnership with L3Harris.

REGULATORY_EXPOSURECOMPETITIVE_POSITION

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 14% – 23%Aggregate: 18%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

17%

Analysis-grounded opus run 1

Committee findings

opusRun 2

20%

Analysis-grounded opus run 2

Committee findings

opusRun 3

23%

Analysis-grounded opus run 3

Committee findings

sonnetRun 1

14%

Analysis-grounded sonnet run 1

Committee findings

sonnetRun 2

17%

Analysis-grounded sonnet run 2

Committee findings

sonnetRun 3

20%

Analysis-grounded sonnet run 3

Committee findings

haikuRun 1

15%

Analysis-grounded haiku run 1

Committee findings

haikuRun 2

18%

Analysis-grounded haiku run 2

Committee findings

haikuRun 3

21%

Analysis-grounded haiku run 3

Committee findings

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if any US government agency opens formal investigation into allegations.

Resolution Source

SEC filings, court documents, government press releases

Source Trigger

Archer countersuit triggers investigation

regulatory-readerREGULATORY_EXPOSUREHIGH

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