JOBYActive

Will Joby carry its first paying passenger (any market) by December 31, 2026?

Resolves January 31, 2027(320d)

IG: 0.68

Current Prediction

42%

Likely No

Model Agreement65%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 16, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Carrying the first paying passenger would transform Joby from development-stage to operating company. This resolves the NARRATIVE_REALITY_GAP assessment and provides the first empirical UNIT_ECONOMICS data. Management has indicated Dubai passenger flights are targeted for 2026.

NARRATIVE_REALITY_GAPUNIT_ECONOMICS

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 38% – 47%Aggregate: 42%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

41%

Analysis-grounded opus run 1

Committee findings

opusRun 2

44%

Analysis-grounded opus run 2

Committee findings

opusRun 3

47%

Analysis-grounded opus run 3

Committee findings

sonnetRun 1

38%

Analysis-grounded sonnet run 1

Committee findings

sonnetRun 2

41%

Analysis-grounded sonnet run 2

Committee findings

sonnetRun 3

44%

Analysis-grounded sonnet run 3

Committee findings

haikuRun 1

39%

Analysis-grounded haiku run 1

Committee findings

haikuRun 2

42%

Analysis-grounded haiku run 2

Committee findings

haikuRun 3

45%

Analysis-grounded haiku run 3

Committee findings

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Joby carries at least one paying passenger on an eVTOL aircraft by Dec 31, 2026.

Resolution Source

Joby press releases, 8-K filings, credible media

Source Trigger

First paying passenger carried

myth-meterNARRATIVE_REALITY_GAPHIGH

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