Archived research. Equity forecasting is part of the Runchey Research archive (methodology era 1) and is no longer actively updated. Everything remains published at its original URL. Browse the archive

JOBYActive

Will Joby carry its first paying passenger (any market) by December 31, 2026?

Resolves January 31, 2027(187d)

IG: 0.68

Current Prediction

42%

Likely No

Model Agreement65%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 16, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Carrying the first paying passenger would transform Joby from development-stage to operating company. This resolves the NARRATIVE_REALITY_GAP assessment and provides the first empirical UNIT_ECONOMICS data. Management has indicated Dubai passenger flights are targeted for 2026.

NARRATIVE_REALITY_GAPUNIT_ECONOMICS

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 38% – 47%Aggregate: 42%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

41%

Analysis-grounded opus run 1

Committee findings

opusRun 2

44%

Analysis-grounded opus run 2

Committee findings

opusRun 3

47%

Analysis-grounded opus run 3

Committee findings

sonnetRun 1

38%

Analysis-grounded sonnet run 1

Committee findings

sonnetRun 2

41%

Analysis-grounded sonnet run 2

Committee findings

sonnetRun 3

44%

Analysis-grounded sonnet run 3

Committee findings

haikuRun 1

39%

Analysis-grounded haiku run 1

Committee findings

haikuRun 2

42%

Analysis-grounded haiku run 2

Committee findings

haikuRun 3

45%

Analysis-grounded haiku run 3

Committee findings

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Joby carries at least one paying passenger on an eVTOL aircraft by Dec 31, 2026.

Resolution Source

Joby press releases, 8-K filings, credible media

Source Trigger

First paying passenger carried

myth-meterNARRATIVE_REALITY_GAPHIGH

View JOBY Analysis

Full multi-lens equity analysis