KLARActive

Will Klarna's consumer unpaid loan rate exceed 0.70% in any quarter of 2026?

Resolves March 31, 2027(379d)

IG: 0.60

Current Prediction

40%

Likely No

Model Agreement76%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 17, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Consumer default rates are the lagging indicator confirming whether provisions were adequate.

FUNDING_FRAGILITYREVENUE_DURABILITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 35% – 45%Aggregate: 40%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

40%

Based on KLAR analysis signals and monitoring triggers. Credit provision trajectory is the dominant factor.

Credit provision trajectoryManagement executionMarket conditions

opusRun 2

35%

Weighting credit risk factors more heavily given subprime consumer demographics.

Subprime consumer mixProvision rate uncertaintyLeverage constraints

opusRun 3

43%

Weighting Chairman purchase signal and operational momentum more heavily.

Chairman $50M purchase signalRevenue acceleration to 38%AI cost savings

sonnetRun 1

42%

Balancing growth momentum against credit headwinds and regulatory risk.

966K merchant network growthQ4 provision improvementGuidance credibility

sonnetRun 2

37%

Emphasizing class action risk and EU regulatory tightening as headwinds.

Securities class action factual basisEU regulation tighteningLock-up selling risk

sonnetRun 3

40%

Centering on base case with balanced risk assessment across all signals.

Balanced view of growth vs credit riskManagement track recordMarket positioning

haikuRun 1

45%

Revenue growth and network effects support the base case outcome.

Strong revenue momentumTwo-sided networkAI efficiency

haikuRun 2

38%

Credit cycle sensitivity creates meaningful downside risk to base case.

Subprime exposureMacro sensitivityLeverage constraints

haikuRun 3

40%

Near consensus view with moderate uncertainty reflecting mixed signal environment.

Mixed signals balanceHigher scrutiny warrantedMonitor credit trajectory

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Klarna Group plc reports a consumer unpaid loan rate (or equivalent credit quality metric) exceeding 0.70% in any quarterly filing during 2026. Resolves NO if the rate remains at or below 0.70% in all reported quarters.

Resolution Source

Klarna Group plc quarterly earnings releases, 6-K filings, or 20-F annual filing

Source Trigger

Consumer Default Rate -- currently 0.51-0.54% unpaid loans. Above 0.70% indicates consumer credit deterioration.

stress-scannerFUNDING_FRAGILITYHIGH

View KLAR Analysis

Full multi-lens equity analysis