KLARActive

Will Klarna's Q1 2026 credit provision rate remain below 0.70% of GMV?

Resolves June 30, 2026(105d)

IG: 0.80

Current Prediction

58%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement82%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 17, 2026

Why This Question Matters

The credit provision rate is the single most important metric, capturing credit quality, growth strategy, and management effectiveness. Q1 2026 data determines whether Q4 improvement (0.65%) was genuine stabilization or temporary.

REVENUE_DURABILITYFUNDING_FRAGILITYACCOUNTING_INTEGRITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 53% – 63%Aggregate: 58%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

58%

Based on KLAR analysis signals and monitoring triggers. Credit provision trajectory is the dominant factor.

Credit provision trajectoryManagement executionMarket conditions

opusRun 2

53%

Weighting credit risk factors more heavily given subprime consumer demographics.

Subprime consumer mixProvision rate uncertaintyLeverage constraints

opusRun 3

61%

Weighting Chairman purchase signal and operational momentum more heavily.

Chairman $50M purchase signalRevenue acceleration to 38%AI cost savings

sonnetRun 1

60%

Balancing growth momentum against credit headwinds and regulatory risk.

966K merchant network growthQ4 provision improvementGuidance credibility

sonnetRun 2

55%

Emphasizing class action risk and EU regulatory tightening as headwinds.

Securities class action factual basisEU regulation tighteningLock-up selling risk

sonnetRun 3

58%

Centering on base case with balanced risk assessment across all signals.

Balanced view of growth vs credit riskManagement track recordMarket positioning

haikuRun 1

63%

Revenue growth and network effects support the base case outcome.

Strong revenue momentumTwo-sided networkAI efficiency

haikuRun 2

56%

Credit cycle sensitivity creates meaningful downside risk to base case.

Subprime exposureMacro sensitivityLeverage constraints

haikuRun 3

58%

Near consensus view with moderate uncertainty reflecting mixed signal environment.

Mixed signals balanceHigher scrutiny warrantedMonitor credit trajectory

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Klarna Group plc reports Q1 2026 credit loss provisions as a percentage of gross merchandise volume below 0.70% in its quarterly earnings release or 6-K filing. Resolves NO if the rate is 0.70% or above.

Resolution Source

Klarna Group plc Q1 2026 earnings release or 6-K filing

Source Trigger

Credit Provision Rate (% of GMV) -- currently 0.65% (Q4 2025), monitor for stabilization below 0.50% or deterioration above 0.80%

gravy-gaugeREVENUE_DURABILITYCRITICAL

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