KTOSActive

Will KTOS maintain a full-year FY2026 book-to-bill ratio at or above 1.0?

Resolves March 15, 2027(363d)

IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

72%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement90%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 16, 2026

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 68% – 75%Aggregate: 72%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

75%

Record $13.7B pipeline, defense budget expansion, multiple expected awards. 1.0 book-to-bill achievable but revenue growth raises bar.

$13.7B pipelineDefense expansionRevenue growth raises bar

opusRun 2

72%

Multiple expected awards should generate significant orders. $1.6B+ in orders needed.

Multiple expected awards$1.6B target

opusRun 3

70%

Historical book-to-bill above 1.0 as backlog grew. Defense spending growth supports order flow.

Historical above 1.0Defense growth

sonnetRun 1

68%

Defense tailwinds and multiple programs favor above 1.0. Some order timing risk.

Budget tailwindsOrder timing risk

sonnetRun 2

72%

Zero recompetes and expanding pipeline strongly favor maintained backlog.

Zero recompetesExpanding pipeline

sonnetRun 3

70%

Multiple new awards expected. Sole-source and engine LRIP. Favors YES.

New awardsSole-source positioning

haikuRun 1

72%

Strong pipeline and defense tailwinds. YES.

PipelineTailwinds

haikuRun 2

70%

Record pipeline and expected awards. Likely YES.

Record pipeline

haikuRun 3

72%

Defense growth and sole-source favor strong order flow. YES.

Defense growthSole-source

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if KTOS reports FY2026 book-to-bill at or above 1.0 in the FY2026 earnings release or call. Resolves NO if below 1.0. Note: if the company does not disclose a full-year book-to-bill, derive from reported backlog changes and revenue.

Resolution Source

KTOS FY2026 earnings release, call, or derived from 10-K backlog data

Source Trigger

Book-to-bill below 1.0 for two consecutive quarters

gravy-gaugeREVENUE_DURABILITYMEDIUM

View KTOS Analysis

Full multi-lens equity analysis