KTOSActive

Will KTOS generate positive full-year FY2026 operating cash flow?

Resolves March 15, 2027(363d)

IG: 0.64

Current Prediction

48%

Likely No

Model Agreement72%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 16, 2026

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 42% – 55%Aggregate: 48%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

55%

Q4 FY2025 generated $12.1M OCF. Revenue growth increases receivables and inventory. DSOs at 121 days. Higher-margin businesses ramping. Close call.

Q4 OCF $12.1MWorking capital scales with growthMargin mix improving

opusRun 2

50%

CEO said OCF ramps in FY2027-2028. FY2026 may be near zero or slightly negative.

CEO FY2027-2028 ramp timelineNear zero expectation

opusRun 3

52%

Appropriation signed helps payments. Seasonal Q4 software sales. But inventory build for SRMs and engines consumes cash.

Appropriation helps paymentsQ4 seasonalityInventory build

sonnetRun 1

45%

$300M revenue growth means ~$100M receivables increase at 121 DSO. Plus inventory. Likely negative.

$100M receivable increaseInventory growth

sonnetRun 2

42%

Prometheus JV funding ($50M) and program investments consume cash. Lean NO.

$50M PrometheusInvestment intensity

sonnetRun 3

48%

Near coin flip. Revenue growth drives WC consumption. Collections could offset.

WC consumptionCollections possible

haikuRun 1

50%

Near zero likely. Could be slightly positive or negative.

Near zero

haikuRun 2

45%

Working capital growth and investments suggest slight negative.

WC growthInvestments

haikuRun 3

48%

Investment intensity slightly favors negative OCF.

Investment intensity

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if KTOS reports positive operating cash flow for FY2026 in the annual 10-K filing or FY2026 earnings release. Resolves NO if operating cash flow is negative for full FY2026.

Resolution Source

KTOS FY2026 10-K filing or earnings release

Source Trigger

Negative operating cash flow for 2+ consecutive quarters signals stress

stress-scannerFUNDING_FRAGILITYHIGH

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