KTOSActive

Will KTOS FY2026 revenue meet or exceed the low end of guidance ($1.595B)?

Resolves March 15, 2027(363d)

IG: 0.60

Current Prediction

80%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement95%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 16, 2026

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 75% – 82%Aggregate: 80%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

82%

Kratos has beaten revenue guidance consistently. Q4 FY2025 beat by ~6%. Record backlog of $1.573B provides 1+ year visibility. FY2026 appropriation signed. $1.595B low-end is conservative at 12.7% growth vs. FY2025 actual 20% organic growth rate. Very likely to meet or exceed.

Consistent guidance beat patternRecord backlog provides visibilityConservative low-end guidance

opusRun 2

80%

The Nomad acquisition (~$75M LTM revenue from mid-Feb) is included in guidance and provides incremental revenue. Hypersonic ramp, even if partially delayed, adds significant revenue. The only realistic miss scenario is a severe government shutdown or appropriations crisis.

Nomad acquisition included in guidanceMultiple growth drivers reduce single-point failure riskGovernment disruption is main miss scenario

opusRun 3

78%

The back-half loaded hypersonic ramp creates some risk. If SRM deliveries slip by a full quarter, $50-100M could shift to FY2027. But the low-end guidance ($1.595B) requires only 12.7% organic growth -- well below the demonstrated 20% rate. Strongly favors YES.

12.7% growth bar is well below demonstrated capabilityBack-half loading creates some riskMultiple segments contributing growth

sonnetRun 1

78%

Low-end guidance requires only 12.7% organic growth. The company grew 20% in FY2025. Backlog is record high. Appropriations signed. Multiple new program wins. This is one of the higher-confidence predictions. Main risk is macro disruption to defense spending.

Low bar at 12.7% vs. 20% demonstratedMacro disruption is only realistic risk

sonnetRun 2

75%

Q1 is guided as the lowest quarter ($335-345M). Need ~$1.25B in Q2-Q4 to hit $1.595B. That's $417M/quarter average. Q4 FY2025 was $345M. Revenue growth trajectory supports this but requires continued ramp.

Q1 lowest quarter then rampQ2-Q4 average needed is above Q4 FY2025 rateRevenue ramp trajectory supports target

sonnetRun 3

80%

Defense budget tailwinds, signed appropriation, multiple growth drivers, conservative guidance bar. Strongly favors meeting low-end.

Multiple tailwindsConservative barDemonstrated execution

haikuRun 1

80%

Record backlog, 20% growth rate, conservative 12.7% growth bar. Very likely YES.

Conservative guidanceStrong backlog

haikuRun 2

78%

Back-half loading and potential government disruptions create tail risk. But low bar and multiple growth drivers strongly favor YES.

Low barMultiple driversSome tail risk

haikuRun 3

82%

Kratos consistently beats guidance. $1.595B is very conservative. Strong YES.

Beat historyConservative target

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if KTOS reports FY2026 revenue at or above $1.595B in the FY2026 earnings release or 10-K filing. Resolves NO if below $1.595B.

Resolution Source

KTOS FY2026 earnings press release (8-K) or 10-K filing

Source Trigger

Revenue or EBITDA guidance miss would trigger narrative compression

myth-meterNARRATIVE_REALITY_GAPHIGH

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