LULUActive

Will Chip Wilson gain at least one board seat at LULU's 2026 annual meeting?

Resolves August 31, 2026(156d)

IG: 0.80

Current Prediction

40%

Likely No

Model Agreement94%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 26, 2026

Why This Question Matters

The proxy fight has the highest uncertainty score. The committee assessed its outcome as binary and unpredictable. Wilson gaining board seats could accelerate needed changes or disrupt governance further. Resolution reduces a major uncertainty overhang.

GOVERNANCE_ALIGNMENT

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 35% – 45%Aggregate: 40%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

38%

~8% holder proxy fights: 30-40% success rate. Wilson has legitimate grievances. Board proactively refreshing with Bergh. ISS recommendations decisive.

30-40% base rateBoard refreshingISS decisive

opusRun 2

42%

Founder status distinguishes from typical activist. CEO departure makes board appear reactive. 5 DFAN14A filings show commitment. But previous Wilson campaigns failed.

Founder not typical activistBoard appears reactivePrevious campaigns failed

opusRun 3

35%

Without ISS support institutional investors vote management. 8% insufficient alone. Bergh is sophisticated countermove.

ISS support critical8% insufficient aloneBergh countermove

sonnetRun 1

45%

Operational backdrop favors Wilson: stock -50%, CEO gone, 3yr decline. Many proxy fights settled before vote.

Strong activist backdropSettlement possibilityWilson knowledge validated

sonnetRun 2

40%

Board already refreshing. Q1 results could strengthen management. Wilson personality may alienate ESG investors.

Board refreshingQ1 could help managementWilson personality risk

sonnetRun 3

43%

Settlement underappreciated. One seat rational for both sides. But Wilson may demand more. Committee uncertainty 5/5.

Settlement rationalWilson demands riskMaximum uncertainty

haikuRun 1

35%

Minority holder vs refreshing board: low success rate. ISS supports management. Below coin-flip.

Low success rateISS supports managementBelow coin-flip

haikuRun 2

40%

Stock -50% and CEO departure strengthen case. Settlement possible. Previous campaigns failed.

Strong case but history againstSettlement possiblePrevious failures

haikuRun 3

37%

35-45% base rate at large caps. Strong narrative vs institutional caution. Slight lean management.

35-45% base rateNarrative vs cautionLean management

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if any Chip Wilson-nominated candidate wins a board seat at lululemon's 2026 annual meeting. Resolves NO if all management-slate candidates retain their seats.

Resolution Source

LULU 8-K filing reporting annual meeting election results

Source Trigger

Proxy fight resolution at annual meeting

insider-investigatorGOVERNANCE_ALIGNMENTHIGH

View LULU Analysis

Full multi-lens equity analysis