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Will LULU's China Mainland revenue growth exceed 20% in FY2026?

Resolves April 15, 2027(383d)

IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

52%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement94%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 26, 2026

Why This Question Matters

China is the primary growth offset to Americas weakness. The committee debated whether deceleration (46% to 28%) represents maturation or momentum loss. If China exceeds 20% for FY2026, the international growth engine remains intact.

REVENUE_DURABILITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 48% – 58%Aggregate: 52%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

55%

China Q4 at 28%, well above 20%. Committee range 15-25% straddles threshold. Store expansion and penetration runway support growth. China macro risks are downside.

Q4 well above thresholdCommittee range straddles 20%Store expansion supports

opusRun 2

52%

46% to 28% deceleration (18pp in one quarter) is significant. Deceleration typically asymptotic not linear. Brand aspirational in China with whitespace.

18pp deceleration concerningDeceleration typically asymptoticBrand aspirational

opusRun 3

48%

China consumer spending broadly weak. 20% is management guidance suggesting achievability. First guidance under new leadership adds uncertainty.

China macro weakness20% is management guidanceNew leadership uncertainty

sonnetRun 1

58%

Management guided ~20%. Only ~130 China stores vs 350+ N.A. Store expansion provides growth floor. Slight lean YES.

Management guided 20%Store count has runwayExpansion provides floor

sonnetRun 2

53%

Deceleration is natural maturation not collapse. 20% is committee median expectation. China macro could push lower. Competitor entry early but growing.

Natural maturation20% is median expectationMacro could push lower

sonnetRun 3

50%

Genuinely balanced. Store expansion, brand aspiration, guidance support YES. Deceleration momentum, macro, maturation support NO. Near coin-flip.

Balanced argumentsManagement guidance anchoringNear coin-flip

haikuRun 1

55%

Q4 at 28% well above 20%. Store expansion continuing. Brand aspirational. Management guides 20%. Lean YES.

Q4 above thresholdExpansion continuingLean YES

haikuRun 2

48%

Deceleration pace suggests continued slowdown. China macro weak. 20% at risk. Near coin-flip.

Deceleration paceChina macroNear coin-flip

haikuRun 3

52%

Management guided 20%. Store expansion provides floor. Slight lean YES.

Management guidanceExpansion floorSlight lean YES

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if lululemon reports FY2026 China Mainland constant-currency revenue growth exceeding 20% YoY. Resolves NO if growth is 20% or below.

Resolution Source

LULU Q4 FY2026 earnings release or 10-K filing

Source Trigger

China growth rate sustained above 20%

gravy-gaugeREVENUE_DURABILITYMEDIUM

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