LULUActive

Will LULU achieve at least $140M in tariff cost offsets in FY2026?

Resolves April 15, 2027(383d)

IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

38%

Likely No

Model Agreement92%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 26, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Tariff costs represent a permanent structural change. FY2025 achieved only $62M of mitigation against $275M in costs. The $160M FY2026 target is ambitious. Achieving near this target ($140M+) demonstrates execution on cost control. Falling short confirms tariffs as unmanageable.

REGULATORY_EXPOSUREUNIT_ECONOMICS

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 32% – 45%Aggregate: 38%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

35%

FY2025: $62M. Need $140M = 2.3x step-up. Vendor negotiations harder year 2. Pricing risks demand. Lean NO.

2.3x step-up neededVendor negotiations harderPricing risks demand

opusRun 2

38%

$160M target implies specific levers. Year 2 benefits from full-year effect of FY2025 actions. But $140M still 2.3x baseline.

Specific levers identifiedYear 2 full-year effectStill 2.3x baseline

opusRun 3

32%

Three lenses agree tariffs structural. FY2025 only offset 25-40%. Multiple strategies must execute simultaneously. DC efficiency most reliable lever.

Three lenses agree structuralFY2025 offset lowMultiple strategies needed

sonnetRun 1

45%

Management target after full year of learning. Year 2 more planned than reactive. DC efficiency and vendor negotiations more effective with planning. $140M is 87.5% of target.

Year of learningPlanned mitigation87.5% of target

sonnetRun 2

40%

Pricing could contribute $50-80M if accepted. Vendor negotiations $30-50M. DC efficiency $20-30M. Total potential $100-160M. $140M requires most levers working.

Pricing $50-80M potentialVendor $30-50MMost levers must work

sonnetRun 3

38%

Demand elasticity risk from pricing. Vendor pushback year 2. But full-year plan and DC investments paying off. Net below coin-flip.

Demand elasticity riskVendor pushbackDC investments paying off

haikuRun 1

33%

$62M to $140M is 2.3x. Very ambitious. Vendor negotiations harder. Lean NO.

2.3x step-upVery ambitiousLean NO

haikuRun 2

38%

Learning curve helps. Pricing taking effect. But $380M is massive. Near coin-flip leaning NO.

Learning curvePricing effectMassive headwind

haikuRun 3

35%

Year 2 should be better. But $140M ambitious vs $62M. Multiple levers must work.

Year 2 improvementAmbitious targetMultiple levers

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if lululemon discloses FY2026 tariff mitigation savings of $140M or more (through pricing, vendor negotiations, supply chain efficiency) in earnings calls or filings. Resolves NO if disclosed mitigation falls below $140M or insufficient disclosure prevents determination.

Resolution Source

LULU FY2026 earnings calls and 10-K filing

Source Trigger

Tariff mitigation success â€” $160M offset target

stress-scannerREGULATORY_EXPOSUREMEDIUM

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