LULUActive

Will LULU report YoY markdown improvement in Q2 FY2026?

Resolves September 15, 2026(171d)

IG: 0.60

Current Prediction

42%

Likely No

Model Agreement94%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 26, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Full-price selling is management's stated top priority and the Gravy Gauge's key brand health indicator. Markdowns up 130bps in Q4 signal weakening brand pull. Management targets full-price inflection by Q2 2026. YES confirms the product pipeline is resonating. NO signals deeper brand erosion.

REVENUE_DURABILITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 38% – 48%Aggregate: 42%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

42%

Management priority #1. Targets Q2 inflection. 35% new style penetration. But Google Trends -21% and 130bps Q4 markdown increase reflects real weakness.

Management targeting Q2Google Trends decliningReal weakness in markdowns

opusRun 2

38%

35% penetration means 65% old product. New products must be genuinely compelling. Competitive alternatives capturing attention.

New products minority of assortmentMust be genuinely compellingCompetition capturing attention

opusRun 3

45%

Q2 FY2025 markdowns likely lower than Q4 making comp easier. DTC at 42% gives markdown control. Spring launches include multiple platforms. Lean slightly YES.

Easier Q2 compDTC channel controlMultiple spring launches

sonnetRun 1

48%

Specific Q2 target suggests management confidence. Named product launches. Tone shift to realism suggests grounded target. 35% penetration may be sufficient.

Specific target signals confidenceNamed product launchesRealism suggests grounded target

sonnetRun 2

43%

YoY improvement is lower bar than positive full-price. Management can control markdown cadence. Risk: spring products underperform forcing clearance.

Lower bar than positive full-priceMarkdown cadence controllableProduct underperformance risk

sonnetRun 3

40%

Moat Mapper: competitive position NARROWING. Google Trends declining. Even good products face structural headwind from premium alternatives.

Competitive position narrowingGoogle Trends decliningStructural headwind from alternatives

haikuRun 1

42%

Management targeting Q2. Spring launches arriving. DTC gives control. But competition intense. Near coin-flip.

Management targeting Q2Spring launchesCompetition intense

haikuRun 2

38%

130bps increase hard to reverse in 2 quarters. Pipeline early. Competition not easing.

Hard to reverse quicklyPipeline earlyCompetition persistent

haikuRun 3

45%

6 months to prepare. Priority #1. YoY improvement is achievable with modest progress. Slight lean YES.

6 months to prepareTop priorityModest bar

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if LULU's Q2 FY2026 earnings call or transcript indicates YoY markdown rate improvement (lower markdowns as % of revenue vs Q2 FY2025). Resolves NO if markdowns are flat or higher YoY.

Resolution Source

LULU Q2 FY2026 earnings transcript (markdown/promotional discussion)

Source Trigger

Full-price selling returns to YoY positive by Q2 2026

gravy-gaugeREVENUE_DURABILITYHIGH

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