LUMNActive

Will Lumen's FY2026 adjusted EBITDA exceed FY2025 adjusted EBITDA (pro forma ex-consumer)?

Resolves February 28, 2027(348d)

IG: 0.68

Current Prediction

74%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement85%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 17, 2026

Why This Question Matters

EBITDA inflection in 2026 is the 3rd of 4 stated turnaround goals. If achieved, it validates cost savings and revenue mix improvement. If missed, the 2028 revenue target loses credibility.

OPERATIONAL_EXECUTIONFUNDING_FRAGILITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 70% – 78%Aggregate: 74%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

78%

Cost savings and interest reduction provide structural uplift exceeding revenue headwind.

Cost savingsInterest reductionRevenue headwind

opusRun 2

72%

Pro forma comparison favorable. Structural improvements locked in.

Pro forma favorableStructural lockedRevenue risk

opusRun 3

75%

Management guided EBITDA inflection. Track record supports delivery.

Management guidedTrack recordDeliverable

sonnetRun 1

75%

$300M cost savings plus $550M interest reduction provides massive uplift.

$300M savings$550M interestMassive uplift

sonnetRun 2

70%

Math favors yes but special items complicate comparison.

Math favorsSpecial itemsComplicated

sonnetRun 3

76%

Interest reduction alone bridges the gap.

Interest alone sufficientHigher confidenceRevenue offset

haikuRun 1

75%

Structural tailwinds dominate. Likely yes.

Structural tailwindsLikely yesManagement guided

haikuRun 2

72%

$850M+ tailwind vs $300-400M headwind. Net positive.

$850M tailwind$300-400M headwindNet positive

haikuRun 3

73%

Favorable comparison, locked improvements. Lean yes.

FavorableLocked inLean yes

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if FY2026 adjusted EBITDA exceeds FY2025 pro forma adjusted EBITDA (excluding divested consumer business).

Resolution Source

Lumen Q4 2026 Earnings Release

Source Trigger

EBITDA inflection guided for 2026

roadkill-radarOPERATIONAL_EXECUTIONHIGH

View LUMN Analysis

Full multi-lens equity analysis