LUMNActive

Will Lumen's net leverage ratio fall below 3.5x by year-end 2026?

Resolves February 28, 2027(348d)

IG: 0.56

Current Prediction

62%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement80%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 17, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Leverage reduction from 3.8x to below 3.5x would signal continued deleveraging momentum. Investment-grade territory would unlock lower borrowing costs and broader investor interest. Stalling would suggest the easy debt reduction is behind them.

FUNDING_FRAGILITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 58% – 65%Aggregate: 62%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

65%

EBITDA growth plus debt paydown should achieve 3.5x.

EBITDA growthDebt paydownAchievable

opusRun 2

60%

Both numerator and denominator must move favorably.

Both factorsMust cooperatePossible

opusRun 3

62%

CFO mentioned buybacks which could slow leverage reduction.

Buyback riskEBITDA helpsCFO comment

sonnetRun 1

62%

EBITDA growth alone moves leverage toward 3.5x.

EBITDA growthDenominator effectAchievable

sonnetRun 2

58%

0.3x reduction is meaningful in one year.

0.3x reductionOne yearMeaningful

sonnetRun 3

65%

Track record of balance sheet delivery supports.

Track recordTargets reductionEBITDA helps

haikuRun 1

62%

EBITDA growth plus debt paydown achievable.

EBITDADebt paydownAchievable

haikuRun 2

60%

Both factors needed. Likely but not certain.

Both neededLikelyNot certain

haikuRun 3

64%

Aggressive management on leverage. Lean yes.

AggressiveEBITDA pathLean yes

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Lumen reports net debt to trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA below 3.5x as of Q4 2026.

Resolution Source

Lumen Q4 2026 Earnings Release

Source Trigger

Debt/EBITDA trajectory toward 3.5x

stress-scannerFUNDING_FRAGILITYHIGH

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