LUMNActive

Will Lumen's NaaS active customer count maintain 20%+ QoQ growth through Q2 2026?

Resolves August 15, 2026(151d)

IG: 0.52

Current Prediction

60%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement78%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 17, 2026

Why This Question Matters

NaaS is the software-layer transformation that determines whether Lumen becomes a platform company or remains a fiber landlord. Sustained 20%+ QoQ customer growth validates the platform thesis. Deceleration signals the J-curve may not materialize.

COMPETITIVE_POSITIONREVENUE_DURABILITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 58% – 62%Aggregate: 60%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

62%

Strong from small base. PMF evidence. LumenConnect distribution.

Small basePMF evidenceDistribution

opusRun 2

58%

Early adopter effect. 20% QoQ is high bar as base grows.

Early adoptersHigh barBase growing

opusRun 3

60%

Both quarters must hit. Enterprise sales cycles are long.

Both quartersEnterprise cyclesMomentum

sonnetRun 1

62%

Low churn sticky base. Off-net expansion. Lean yes.

Low churnOff-netLean yes

sonnetRun 2

58%

Disclosure risk if growth decelerates.

Disclosure riskShort timeframeMomentum

sonnetRun 3

60%

Small base plus strong product. Two quarters achievable.

Small baseStrong productAchievable

haikuRun 1

60%

Strong momentum. Small base. Achievable.

MomentumSmall baseAchievable

haikuRun 2

58%

20% high bar. Natural deceleration possible.

High barDecelerationSlight yes

haikuRun 3

62%

PMF strong. Short timeframe. Likely sustains.

PMF strongShort timeframeSustains

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Lumen discloses NaaS active customer QoQ growth above 20% in both Q1 and Q2 2026 earnings.

Resolution Source

Lumen Q1 and Q2 2026 Earnings Calls

Source Trigger

NaaS adoption metrics growth

moat-mapperCOMPETITIVE_POSITIONHIGH

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