Will Lamb Weston formally announce a sale, spin-off, or other material divestiture of its International segment (or a specific international region: Argentina, Australia, or EMEA assets) by 2027-04-30?

Resolution criteria are inclusive: specific regional divestiture (Argentina most likely first), full International sale, OR formal Board-approved strategic alternatives process with specific scope all count. Argentina-first is the modal outcome because the plant closure already signaled preparation, and a ~$200-400M sale to PE buyer has favorable liquidity. Activist board seat + 12-month window + Consolidation Calibrator explicit catalyst forecast (late FY26 or early FY27) all point to probability above 0.5. The main risks are: (a) management uses general 'strategic review' without specific scope — fails the criteria; (b) full-segment carve-out complexity pushes specific announcement past April 2027. Net 0.58.

Resolution criteria require either a definitive agreement (stringent — typically 12-18 months from review initiation) or Board-approved strategic alternatives process explicitly scoped to International with stated target outcome (more achievable). The latter is realistically probable within 12 months given activist pressure. However, Consolidation Calibrator flagged the divestiture risk is BOTH upside and downside — management may deliberately delay to avoid trough-EBITDA valuation, particularly if International shows any stabilization signs in Q4 FY26 or Q1 FY27. Settle at 0.52.

Three factors tilt probability above 60%: (1) Jan Craps was hired with an explicit strategic-review mandate and has been in seat 4+ months already — by April 2027 he will have 14 months of runway, enough to complete a Board review; (2) Argentina carve-out is simpler than full-International and the plant closure already signals intent; (3) JANA and Starboard both have ~3-year activist patience cycles and April 2027 is well within their typical announcement-forcing timeline. The only major risk is explicit-scope language failing — but even a formal Argentina-process announcement would count. Settle at 0.62.

Balanced view: activist pressure + explicit catalyst forecast argue for yes, but specific-scope language requirement and valuation-timing tension argue for no. 12-month window captures the most likely announcement period per Consolidation Calibrator ('late FY26 or early FY27' = July 2026 to July 2027). Settle at 0.55.

Coin-flip read: strong activist pressure + new Exec Chair mandate balanced against strict resolution criteria (must be specific scope, not generic review) and potential management strategy of patience for operational recovery. Settle at 0.50.

Tilts slightly above 50% reflecting Consolidation Calibrator's explicit 'late FY26 or early FY27' catalyst forecast falling squarely within the resolution window. Argentina-first announcement is plausible near-term. 0.56.

Activist pressure + new Exec Chair + 12-month window gives roughly 55% probability of formal announcement with specific scope. Argentina most likely vehicle. 0.55.

Slightly above 50% — activist timing pressure balanced against carve-out complexity. 0.52.

Probability above 50% reflecting activist board seat + explicit catalyst forecast + broad resolution criteria (includes Argentina-specific or full segment). 0.57.