Will the Federal Reserve's US mining production index (IPG212S) exceed 86.0 in any monthly reading before March 31, 2027?
Why This Question Matters
The IPG212S production index is the most direct measure of whether the structural supply deficit — the sector's highest-confidence finding — is beginning to resolve. A breakout above 86 would signal new capacity arriving, increasing the probability of GROWTH_EXPANSION regime transition from the current 35% estimate. Continued decline would reinforce the 3-8 year elevated return window thesis and validate the underinvestment thesis confirmed by three independent lenses.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if any monthly reading of the Federal Reserve Industrial Production Index for Mining (series IPG212S) exceeds 86.0 before March 31, 2027. Resolves NO if all monthly readings remain at or below 86.0 through March 2027.
Resolution Source
Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), series IPG212S — Industrial Production: Mining
Source Trigger
Mining production index (IPG212S) breakout above 86 would signal new productive capacity arriving, confirming GROWTH_EXPANSION transition (currently: 82.5, declining)
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