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MIRActive

Will MIR achieve FY2026 adjusted EBITDA margin at or above 30%?

Resolves February 28, 2027(239d)
IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

52%
Likely Yes
Model Agreement97%
Predictions9 runs
Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
haiku
Range: 48% – 55%Aggregate: 52%
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
opusRun 1
55%

Paragon dilutive but core margins improving. 30% requires dilution offset by expansion.

Paragon dilutive but core margins improving. 30% requires dilution offset by exp
opusRun 2
52%

QUESTIONABLE accounting means adjusted EBITDA may include favorable treatments. Near coin-flip.

QUESTIONABLE accounting means adjusted EBITDA may include favorable treatments.
opusRun 3
53%

Paragon dilution vs core improvement creates genuine uncertainty around 30%.

Paragon dilution vs core improvement creates genuine uncertainty around 30%.
sonnetRun 1
50%

Paragon dilutive but core margins improving. 30% requires dilution offset by expansion.

Paragon dilutive but core margins improving. 30% requires dilution offset by exp
sonnetRun 2
52%

QUESTIONABLE accounting means adjusted EBITDA may include favorable treatments. Near coin-flip.

QUESTIONABLE accounting means adjusted EBITDA may include favorable treatments.
sonnetRun 3
48%

Paragon dilution vs core improvement creates genuine uncertainty around 30%.

Paragon dilution vs core improvement creates genuine uncertainty around 30%.
haikuRun 1
52%

Paragon dilutive but core margins improving. 30% requires dilution offset by expansion.

Paragon dilutive but core margins improving. 30% requires dilution offset by exp
haikuRun 2
50%

QUESTIONABLE accounting means adjusted EBITDA may include favorable treatments. Near coin-flip.

QUESTIONABLE accounting means adjusted EBITDA may include favorable treatments.
haikuRun 3
53%

Paragon dilution vs core improvement creates genuine uncertainty around 30%.

Paragon dilution vs core improvement creates genuine uncertainty around 30%.

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if MIR reports FY2026 adjusted EBITDA margin of 30% or higher. Resolves NO if below 30%.

Resolution Source

Mirion FY2026 10-K or Q4 earnings release

Source Trigger

Balance sheet complexity obscures true economics: convertible notes, equity dilution, SPAC-era structure, non-GAAP adjustments.

fugazi-filterACCOUNTING_INTEGRITYMEDIUM
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