MIRActive

Will MIR convert more than $200M from its large opportunity pipeline in FY2026?

Resolves February 28, 2027(325d)

IG: 0.64

Current Prediction

40%

Likely No

Model Agreement97%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 35% – 43%Aggregate: 40%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

42%

Nuclear pipeline conversion historically 30-50%. 200M from 400M+ requires top of range.

Nuclear pipeline conversion historically 30-50%. 200M from 400M+ requires top of

opusRun 2

40%

Large nuclear contracts have long decision cycles. Pipeline disclosure may lack precision.

Large nuclear contracts have long decision cycles. Pipeline disclosure may lack

opusRun 3

43%

Nuclear project conversion is lumpy. Regulatory and utility capital factors affect timing.

Nuclear project conversion is lumpy. Regulatory and utility capital factors affe

sonnetRun 1

38%

Nuclear pipeline conversion historically 30-50%. 200M from 400M+ requires top of range.

Nuclear pipeline conversion historically 30-50%. 200M from 400M+ requires top of

sonnetRun 2

40%

Large nuclear contracts have long decision cycles. Pipeline disclosure may lack precision.

Large nuclear contracts have long decision cycles. Pipeline disclosure may lack

sonnetRun 3

35%

Nuclear project conversion is lumpy. Regulatory and utility capital factors affect timing.

Nuclear project conversion is lumpy. Regulatory and utility capital factors affe

haikuRun 1

40%

Nuclear pipeline conversion historically 30-50%. 200M from 400M+ requires top of range.

Nuclear pipeline conversion historically 30-50%. 200M from 400M+ requires top of

haikuRun 2

38%

Large nuclear contracts have long decision cycles. Pipeline disclosure may lack precision.

Large nuclear contracts have long decision cycles. Pipeline disclosure may lack

haikuRun 3

42%

Nuclear project conversion is lumpy. Regulatory and utility capital factors affect timing.

Nuclear project conversion is lumpy. Regulatory and utility capital factors affe

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Mirion demonstrates large opportunity pipeline conversion exceeding $200M in FY2026. Resolves NO if below $200M or not disclosed.

Resolution Source

Mirion earnings calls, investor presentations, or annual filing

Source Trigger

Large opportunity pipeline conversion: $400M+ pipeline for 2026; actual conversion rate will validate or invalidate growth narrative.

gravy-gaugeREVENUE_DURABILITYMEDIUM

View MIR Analysis

Full multi-lens equity analysis