Archived research. Equity forecasting is part of the Runchey Research archive (methodology era 1) and is no longer actively updated. Everything remains published at its original URL. Browse the archive

MIRActive

Will MIR achieve FY2026 organic revenue growth above 5%?

Resolves February 28, 2027(239d)

IG: 0.80

Current Prediction

48%

Likely No

Model Agreement96%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 43% – 52%Aggregate: 48%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

50%

FY2025 was 4% organic. Pipeline conversion must exceed historical 30-50% rates for 5%+.

FY2025 was 4% organic. Pipeline conversion must exceed historical 30-50% rates f

opusRun 2

48%

5% is low-end of 5-7% guide. Full-year depends on pipeline conversion and RTQA recovery.

5% is low-end of 5-7% guide. Full-year depends on pipeline conversion and RTQA r

opusRun 3

52%

Three lenses flagged organic disconnect. Achieving 5%+ requires material improvement.

Three lenses flagged organic disconnect. Achieving 5%+ requires material improve

sonnetRun 1

45%

FY2025 was 4% organic. Pipeline conversion must exceed historical 30-50% rates for 5%+.

FY2025 was 4% organic. Pipeline conversion must exceed historical 30-50% rates f

sonnetRun 2

47%

5% is low-end of 5-7% guide. Full-year depends on pipeline conversion and RTQA recovery.

5% is low-end of 5-7% guide. Full-year depends on pipeline conversion and RTQA r

sonnetRun 3

43%

Three lenses flagged organic disconnect. Achieving 5%+ requires material improvement.

Three lenses flagged organic disconnect. Achieving 5%+ requires material improve

haikuRun 1

48%

FY2025 was 4% organic. Pipeline conversion must exceed historical 30-50% rates for 5%+.

FY2025 was 4% organic. Pipeline conversion must exceed historical 30-50% rates f

haikuRun 2

45%

5% is low-end of 5-7% guide. Full-year depends on pipeline conversion and RTQA recovery.

5% is low-end of 5-7% guide. Full-year depends on pipeline conversion and RTQA r

haikuRun 3

50%

Three lenses flagged organic disconnect. Achieving 5%+ requires material improvement.

Three lenses flagged organic disconnect. Achieving 5%+ requires material improve

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if MIR FY2026 organic revenue growth exceeds 5%. Resolves NO if 5% or below.

Resolution Source

Mirion FY2026 10-K or Q4 earnings release

Source Trigger

Organic growth deceleration despite nuclear renaissance narrative. FY2025 organic was ~4%. Management guides 5-7% for FY2026.

myth-meterNARRATIVE_REALITY_GAPHIGH

View MIR Analysis

Full multi-lens equity analysis