MIRActive

Will MIR achieve FY2026 organic revenue growth above 5%?

Resolves February 28, 2027(325d)

IG: 0.80

Current Prediction

48%

Likely No

Model Agreement96%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 43% – 52%Aggregate: 48%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

50%

FY2025 was 4% organic. Pipeline conversion must exceed historical 30-50% rates for 5%+.

FY2025 was 4% organic. Pipeline conversion must exceed historical 30-50% rates f

opusRun 2

48%

5% is low-end of 5-7% guide. Full-year depends on pipeline conversion and RTQA recovery.

5% is low-end of 5-7% guide. Full-year depends on pipeline conversion and RTQA r

opusRun 3

52%

Three lenses flagged organic disconnect. Achieving 5%+ requires material improvement.

Three lenses flagged organic disconnect. Achieving 5%+ requires material improve

sonnetRun 1

45%

FY2025 was 4% organic. Pipeline conversion must exceed historical 30-50% rates for 5%+.

FY2025 was 4% organic. Pipeline conversion must exceed historical 30-50% rates f

sonnetRun 2

47%

5% is low-end of 5-7% guide. Full-year depends on pipeline conversion and RTQA recovery.

5% is low-end of 5-7% guide. Full-year depends on pipeline conversion and RTQA r

sonnetRun 3

43%

Three lenses flagged organic disconnect. Achieving 5%+ requires material improvement.

Three lenses flagged organic disconnect. Achieving 5%+ requires material improve

haikuRun 1

48%

FY2025 was 4% organic. Pipeline conversion must exceed historical 30-50% rates for 5%+.

FY2025 was 4% organic. Pipeline conversion must exceed historical 30-50% rates f

haikuRun 2

45%

5% is low-end of 5-7% guide. Full-year depends on pipeline conversion and RTQA recovery.

5% is low-end of 5-7% guide. Full-year depends on pipeline conversion and RTQA r

haikuRun 3

50%

Three lenses flagged organic disconnect. Achieving 5%+ requires material improvement.

Three lenses flagged organic disconnect. Achieving 5%+ requires material improve

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if MIR FY2026 organic revenue growth exceeds 5%. Resolves NO if 5% or below.

Resolution Source

Mirion FY2026 10-K or Q4 earnings release

Source Trigger

Organic growth deceleration despite nuclear renaissance narrative. FY2025 organic was ~4%. Management guides 5-7% for FY2026.

myth-meterNARRATIVE_REALITY_GAPHIGH

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