Will MMYT's Air ticketing segment grow at flat-or-positive YoY GBV (constant currency) in Q4 FY26 (JFM 2026)?

The question is segment-level Air GBV (including international). International outbound is 43% of MMYT Air mix and has been growing 15-20%+ structurally. Even if domestic stays at -3% (Q2 FY26 level), the mix-weighted segment growth is: 0.57*(-3%) + 0.43*(18%) = +6% segment growth — clearly clears the flat threshold. Domestic should improve from Q3 FY26 trough as FDTL has been at steady-state for 3+ months by JFM. Q4 FY26 vs. Q4 FY25: Q4 FY25 had post-Pahalgam recovery + pre-FDTL capacity — relatively strong domestic comp. Net: probability YES around 60%.

International offset is real but: (a) Q4 FY25 international comp also strong (post-Pahalgam Indians traveled abroad), (b) INR depreciation creates outbound pricing headwind which could moderate volume, (c) the segment-level Air GBV may show domestic disclosure prominently — meta-synthesis trigger explicitly cites 'domestic air daily departures recovery' as the threshold, suggesting committee weights domestic specifically. If the question resolves on segment-level GBV (international included), probability is higher; if implicitly domestic-focused, probability lower. The phrasing in the market resolution criteria is segment-level GBV but the trigger is domestic-recovery. Probability: 55%.

Read of the meta-synthesis: 'Q4 FY26 (JFM): back to flat-to-positive YoY indicates FDTL stabilization' — this is explicitly framed as the trigger to look for. The committee modeled this as a coin-flip-plus on operational stabilization. Domestic capacity has been at FDTL-adjusted steady-state since Dec 2025 (3+ months by Q4-end), enough time for demand to fill available seats. Industry data points to gradual normalization. Plus international offset. Plus MMYT share preservation at 30-31%. Probability YES: 62%.

International mix at 43% is the clearest offset, but it's not pure international — it's the geographic composition of MMYT Air revenue. The domestic component (~57%) is constrained by Indigo capacity reduction. Q4 FY26 vs. Q4 FY25 comp is moderately tough on domestic (FY25 was pre-FDTL with full capacity) and the international offset has tougher comps too. 50-50 on flat-positive segment GBV. Probability YES slight tilt up to 55% given committee's framing.

Genuine coin flip. FDTL impact remains. International growth slowing in late 2025/early 2026 per global travel data. INR weak makes outbound expensive. Q4 (JFM) is peak winter international travel for Indians but base comp is also strong. Domestic recovery to flat is plausible but not certain. The threshold is 0.0% — narrow band where small error in either direction matters. Probability: 50%.

Lean YES on segment-level. International outbound continues to grow even with INR pressure (price-elasticity is moderate; aspirational travel is sticky). Domestic should improve from Q2 -3% level as FDTL is normalized comp by Q4 FY26. MMYT share preserved. Q4 typically benefits from end-of-fiscal-year corporate travel + winter holiday season. Probability YES: 58%.

International mix at 43% provides material offset to domestic FDTL pressure. Domestic should improve from Q2 -3% level given FDTL has been steady-state. Segment-level Air GBV likely flat-to-positive. Probability YES: 58%.

Lean YES with moderate conviction. International still growing, domestic stabilizing, Q4 seasonal corporate travel boost. But base comps are tough for both domestic and international. Probability YES: 55%.

Air segment normalization is the central trigger from meta-synthesis. International offset + FDTL stabilization + share preservation suggest YES around 55%. Risk: domestic capacity remains constrained, INR depreciation hurts outbound. Probability YES: 55%.