Will MMYT's Q4 FY26 (JFM 2026) Other segment adjusted margin grow 30%+ YoY constant currency?

Trajectory is 30%+ → 29.7% → 45.5% across Q1-Q3 FY26. Q4 FY26 starts with HAPPAY integration cross-sell hitting full velocity, Tours & Activities scaling with 200K bookable inventory recently launched, MyBiz customers up to 77.5K (vs 64K prior). The 45.5% Q3 print likely had HAPPAY anniversary effect partially baked in (Feb 2025 acquisition meant Q3 FY26 = 11 months post-acquisition, just before anniversary cycle-out). Q4 FY26 (Mar 2026 = 13 months post-HAPPAY) is the anniversary cycle-out quarter — inorganic contribution begins to drop from YoY comp. But organic acceleration of cross-sell typically peaks 12-18 months post-acquisition, so the integration value is still climbing. Net: 30%+ achievable but Q3's 45.5% likely won't repeat. Probability YES (>=30%): 65%.

The 30% threshold is at the floor of recent trajectory but compounds risks: (a) HAPPAY anniversary effect (Feb 2025 acquisition means Q4 FY26 sees the inorganic-organic transition impact), (b) larger base making 30%+ harder year-over-year, (c) Q3 FY26's 45.5% may be the peak with mean reversion. The case for YES rests on HAPPAY cross-sell still in build, T&A scaling, and corporate travel TAM under-penetration. Calling the trajectory at 30% (low end of recent range) suggests management would frame it as resilience even if it lands 25-30%. The committee assessed 30%+ as the YES threshold for de-escalation; sub-30% is plausible normalization. Probability: 58%.

Reading the segment composition: corporate travel (HAPPAY-integrated MyBiz/Quest with 77.5K + 539 customers) is structural growth driver; T&A is early-scale-up with multi-quarter runway; BookMyForex/Savaari/insurance are mature steady contributors. The 45.5% Q3 was likely boosted by year-end corporate travel surge (Q3 = Oct-Dec is peak corporate travel season in India). Q4 FY26 is JFM — typically lower corporate travel intensity as new fiscal year planning replaces transaction volume. Mix-corrected estimate: ~32-35% growth, which clears 30% but with a tighter margin. Probability YES: 62%.

Three-quarter trajectory averages ~35%+ growth. The 30% bar is at the lower end of recent run-rate. HAPPAY anniversary effect is the main risk — Feb 2025 acquisition means Q4 FY26 begins the inorganic cycle-out. But organic momentum from corporate travel customer adds (77.5K from 64K = +21%) supports continued growth. Tours & Activities is early-stage. T&E cross-sell is hitting velocity. Net: 30%+ is achievable but with some risk of mean reversion to 25-30% on HAPPAY anniversary. Probability YES: 60%.

I weight the HAPPAY anniversary effect higher. Feb 2025 acquisition means by Feb-Mar 2026 (Q4 FY26), the inorganic contribution shifts from YoY 'new' to YoY base. This historically takes 5-8pp off growth rates at consumer/services companies in similar M&A cycles. If underlying organic is ~35-40%, post-anniversary YoY could come in ~28-32% — straddles the 30% threshold. The growth rate has accelerated, not decelerated, through Q3 FY26 which is encouraging — but the next quarter is precisely the anniversary timing. Probability YES: 55%.

Other segment has been the diversification crown jewel — accelerated through three disrupted quarters. Q4 FY26 has Tours & Activities ramping, HAPPAY cross-sell at peak velocity, and forex/insurance steady. Management explicitly framed Other as growth driver with multi-quarter runway. The 30% bar is the floor, not the typical print — recent trajectory is 30-45%. Probability YES: 62%.

Three quarters of 30%+ trajectory in Other segment. HAPPAY integration accelerating cross-sell. Tours & Activities scaling. 30%+ Q4 FY26 is achievable but HAPPAY anniversary is a Q4-specific risk (Feb 2025 acquisition cycles out around March 2026). Probability YES: 60%.

30% threshold is at the lower end of trajectory. Q3 FY26 hit 45.5% but that's likely peak. HAPPAY anniversary in Q4 FY26 begins inorganic cycle-out. Larger base year-over-year. Mean reversion to 25-32% range plausible. Probability YES: 55%.

Diversification crown jewel with three quarters of 30%+ growth. Q4 FY26 has multiple positive drivers (T&A, corporate cross-sell, HAPPAY at full integration). Anniversary effect is real but underlying organic growth is likely 30%+. Probability YES: 60%.