Will Navan disclose another senior finance or accounting officer departure (CFO, CAO, controller, or VP Finance equivalent) by December 31, 2026?

Three factors push toward elevated probability: (1) New CFO Nolf typically wants to bring in his own controller/FP&A leadership in months 6-12 — that timeline coincides with our window; (2) litigation discovery process can pressure individual finance officers via deposition exposure; (3) base rate for newly-public companies under litigation having additional finance departures in 8-month windows is elevated (~30-40%). Counter-considerations: (a) the CAO departure in April may have been the cleanup move, removing the most pressured role; (b) IPO-vested equity creates economic retention; (c) public-company resume value is high. The resolution criteria is broad ('senior finance or accounting officer at the title level of CFO, Chief Accounting Officer, Principal Accounting Officer, Treasurer, Controller, or any Senior VP / VP of Finance') which captures a reasonable basket of named officers. 42% probability.

Important: the resolution criteria requires the departure to be DISCLOSED via 8-K, press release, 10-Q/10-K, or proxy filing. Many VP-level departures at $700M-revenue companies are NOT 8-K-disclosable (Item 5.02 typically requires Section 16 officers). However: VP Finance / Treasurer / Controller departures DO often get disclosed in proxy statements (which list named executive officers) or 10-Q risk factor updates. The disclosure threshold is moderate, not high. Combined with the litigation discovery pressure and natural CFO-led team turnover, ~45% probability.

Slightly more conservative: the CAO departure in April was already announced 8 days before the analysis date, and that departure plus the CFO transition arguably consume the immediate post-IPO finance turnover. Remaining stability factors are strong: IPO-vested equity, public-company prestige, Big-4 audit relationship continuity, and Nolf's strong incentive to demonstrate finance team stability post-litigation. 40% probability. The risk-adjusted base rate for additional departures is elevated but not majority.

Base rate analysis: among newly-public software/tech companies with active securities class actions, the rate of additional senior finance officer departures within 8-month forward windows is approximately 35-45%. NAVN qualifies for this base rate. The CAO departure is a recent data point that itself confirms the elevated turnover risk — but having recently turned over, the next 8 months may see relative stability as the new team settles. 40%.

Specific scenarios that produce YES: (1) Nolf appoints new CAO/Controller/Treasurer to backfill Giviskos, then a separate departure occurs; (2) one of the VP Finance / FP&A leadership departs for compensation/career reasons; (3) class action discovery surfaces stress that drives a finance officer exit. Each scenario has individual probability of 10-20%. Cumulative probability: ~43%.

Conservative: most VP-level finance turnover is not disclosed in real-time. The proxy statement typically annual would capture changes in Section 16 officers. Within an 8-month window ending December 31, the proxy filing cadence may not catch all departures before resolution date. Reduces effective YES probability. 38%.

Cluster pattern + litigation pressure + new CFO team-building tilt elevated. 42%.

Base rate for additional finance turnover at newly-public + litigation companies in 8 months: ~40%. NAVN at base rate. 40%.

Slightly above base rate due to (a) Nolf likely to bring in own team, (b) litigation discovery pressure, (c) broad resolution criteria. 45%.