NRGActive

Will PJM capacity auction clearing prices for 2026/2027 exceed prior year levels?

Resolves August 31, 2026(144d)

IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

60%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement97%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 55% – 63%Aggregate: 60%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

63%

Supply-demand tightening from data center growth and coal retirements supports higher prices. LS Power fleet benefits.

Supply-demand tightening from data center growth and coal retirements supports h

opusRun 2

60%

PJM reforms may affect price levels. New generation or DR could offset tightening. Regulatory risk from redesign.

PJM reforms may affect price levels. New generation or DR could offset tightenin

opusRun 3

62%

Secular trend favors higher capacity prices. Data center demand adds support. Historical trend upward.

Secular trend favors higher capacity prices. Data center demand adds support. Hi

sonnetRun 1

58%

Supply-demand tightening from data center growth and coal retirements supports higher prices. LS Power fleet benefits.

Supply-demand tightening from data center growth and coal retirements supports h

sonnetRun 2

60%

PJM reforms may affect price levels. New generation or DR could offset tightening. Regulatory risk from redesign.

PJM reforms may affect price levels. New generation or DR could offset tightenin

sonnetRun 3

55%

Secular trend favors higher capacity prices. Data center demand adds support. Historical trend upward.

Secular trend favors higher capacity prices. Data center demand adds support. Hi

haikuRun 1

60%

Supply-demand tightening from data center growth and coal retirements supports higher prices. LS Power fleet benefits.

Supply-demand tightening from data center growth and coal retirements supports h

haikuRun 2

58%

PJM reforms may affect price levels. New generation or DR could offset tightening. Regulatory risk from redesign.

PJM reforms may affect price levels. New generation or DR could offset tightenin

haikuRun 3

62%

Secular trend favors higher capacity prices. Data center demand adds support. Historical trend upward.

Secular trend favors higher capacity prices. Data center demand adds support. Hi

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if the PJM capacity auction clearing price for the relevant delivery year exceeds the prior year's clearing price. Resolves NO if flat or lower.

Resolution Source

PJM capacity auction results or NRG earnings disclosures

Source Trigger

PJM capacity auction results -- Validates eastern fleet revenue assumptions from LS Power acquisition.

gravy-gaugeREVENUE_DURABILITYMEDIUM

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