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NRG Forecast Markets

NRG Energy Inc.

7
Active Markets
58%
Avg Probability
Price Above Value
Apr 8, 2026

Our prediction ensemble identifies elevated risk at current levels.

7 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

7 markets

Will NRG announce data center power contracts totaling 1 GW+ in 2026?

Active
42%
Likely No
95% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 1.00

Will NRG achieve net debt/EBITDA below 3.0x by year-end 2026?

Active
45%
Likely No
94% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 0.80

Will average ERCOT power prices remain above $50/MWh through H2 2026?

Active
55%
Likely Yes
93% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.64

Will NRG achieve FY2026 adjusted EBITDA above $5B?

Active
60%
Likely Yes
95% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 0.60

Will PJM capacity auction clearing prices exceed prior year levels?

Active
60%
Likely Yes
94% agreement
Aug 31, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will the CEO transition maintain strategic continuity through 2026?

Active
72%
Likely Yes
96% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will NRG Smart Home maintain customer retention above 90%?

Active
75%
Likely Yes
96% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 0.24

Resolution Timeline

Aug 31, 2026
Will PJM capacity auction clearing prices exceed prior year levels?
Prediction: 60%
Jan 15, 2027
Will NRG announce data center power contracts totaling 1 GW+ in 2026?
Prediction: 42%
Jan 15, 2027
Will the CEO transition maintain strategic continuity through 2026?
Prediction: 72%
Jan 31, 2027
Will average ERCOT power prices remain above $50/MWh through H2 2026?
Prediction: 55%
Feb 28, 2027
Will NRG achieve net debt/EBITDA below 3.0x by year-end 2026?
Prediction: 45%
Feb 28, 2027
Will NRG achieve FY2026 adjusted EBITDA above $5B?
Prediction: 60%
Feb 28, 2027
Will NRG Smart Home maintain customer retention above 90%?
Prediction: 75%