NRGActive

Will average ERCOT power prices remain above $50/MWh through H2 2026?

Resolves January 31, 2027(297d)

IG: 0.64

Current Prediction

55%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement96%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 50% – 58%Aggregate: 55%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

58%

Data center demand tightens ERCOT supply-demand. Summer 2026 peak should support prices. Reserve margins declining.

Data center demand tightens ERCOT supply-demand. Summer 2026 peak should support

opusRun 2

55%

Weather dependence creates uncertainty. Mild summer or new capacity could suppress prices. Gas prices affect clearing.

Weather dependence creates uncertainty. Mild summer or new capacity could suppre

opusRun 3

57%

ERCOT structural constraints favor higher prices but $50/MWh average requires sustained demand.

ERCOT structural constraints favor higher prices but $50/MWh average requires su

sonnetRun 1

53%

Data center demand tightens ERCOT supply-demand. Summer 2026 peak should support prices. Reserve margins declining.

Data center demand tightens ERCOT supply-demand. Summer 2026 peak should support

sonnetRun 2

55%

Weather dependence creates uncertainty. Mild summer or new capacity could suppress prices. Gas prices affect clearing.

Weather dependence creates uncertainty. Mild summer or new capacity could suppre

sonnetRun 3

50%

ERCOT structural constraints favor higher prices but $50/MWh average requires sustained demand.

ERCOT structural constraints favor higher prices but $50/MWh average requires su

haikuRun 1

55%

Data center demand tightens ERCOT supply-demand. Summer 2026 peak should support prices. Reserve margins declining.

Data center demand tightens ERCOT supply-demand. Summer 2026 peak should support

haikuRun 2

52%

Weather dependence creates uncertainty. Mild summer or new capacity could suppress prices. Gas prices affect clearing.

Weather dependence creates uncertainty. Mild summer or new capacity could suppre

haikuRun 3

58%

ERCOT structural constraints favor higher prices but $50/MWh average requires sustained demand.

ERCOT structural constraints favor higher prices but $50/MWh average requires su

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if average ERCOT real-time wholesale price exceeds $50/MWh for the July-December 2026 period. Resolves NO if the H2 2026 average is $50/MWh or below.

Resolution Source

ERCOT market data or NRG earnings disclosures

Source Trigger

ERCOT and PJM power prices -- Revenue sensitivity driver. A sustained decline would pressure both EBITDA and deleveraging timeline.

gravy-gaugeREVENUE_DURABILITYMEDIUM

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