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Will average ERCOT power prices remain above $50/MWh through H2 2026?
Current Prediction
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
Data center demand tightens ERCOT supply-demand. Summer 2026 peak should support prices. Reserve margins declining.
Weather dependence creates uncertainty. Mild summer or new capacity could suppress prices. Gas prices affect clearing.
ERCOT structural constraints favor higher prices but $50/MWh average requires sustained demand.
Data center demand tightens ERCOT supply-demand. Summer 2026 peak should support prices. Reserve margins declining.
Weather dependence creates uncertainty. Mild summer or new capacity could suppress prices. Gas prices affect clearing.
ERCOT structural constraints favor higher prices but $50/MWh average requires sustained demand.
Data center demand tightens ERCOT supply-demand. Summer 2026 peak should support prices. Reserve margins declining.
Weather dependence creates uncertainty. Mild summer or new capacity could suppress prices. Gas prices affect clearing.
ERCOT structural constraints favor higher prices but $50/MWh average requires sustained demand.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if average ERCOT real-time wholesale price exceeds $50/MWh for the July-December 2026 period. Resolves NO if the H2 2026 average is $50/MWh or below.
Resolution Source
ERCOT market data or NRG earnings disclosures
Source Trigger
ERCOT and PJM power prices -- Revenue sensitivity driver. A sustained decline would pressure both EBITDA and deleveraging timeline.
Full multi-lens equity analysis