NRGActive

Will NRG announce data center power contracts totaling 1 GW+ in 2026?

Resolves January 15, 2027(281d)

IG: 1.00

Current Prediction

42%

Likely No

Model Agreement96%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 38% – 45%Aggregate: 42%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

45%

Data center demand is real but 1GW requires multiple large deals. NRG positioning is unique but deal cycles are long.

Data center demand is real but 1GW requires multiple large deals. NRG positionin

opusRun 2

42%

Market prices in data center upside not in base plan. 1GW target is ambitious. BYOP model is new and unproven at scale.

Market prices in data center upside not in base plan. 1GW target is ambitious. B

opusRun 3

43%

Generation fleet and turbine slots provide advantage but hyperscaler timelines extend beyond 2026 for many projects.

Generation fleet and turbine slots provide advantage but hyperscaler timelines e

sonnetRun 1

40%

Data center demand is real but 1GW requires multiple large deals. NRG positioning is unique but deal cycles are long.

Data center demand is real but 1GW requires multiple large deals. NRG positionin

sonnetRun 2

42%

Market prices in data center upside not in base plan. 1GW target is ambitious. BYOP model is new and unproven at scale.

Market prices in data center upside not in base plan. 1GW target is ambitious. B

sonnetRun 3

38%

Generation fleet and turbine slots provide advantage but hyperscaler timelines extend beyond 2026 for many projects.

Generation fleet and turbine slots provide advantage but hyperscaler timelines e

haikuRun 1

42%

Data center demand is real but 1GW requires multiple large deals. NRG positioning is unique but deal cycles are long.

Data center demand is real but 1GW requires multiple large deals. NRG positionin

haikuRun 2

40%

Market prices in data center upside not in base plan. 1GW target is ambitious. BYOP model is new and unproven at scale.

Market prices in data center upside not in base plan. 1GW target is ambitious. B

haikuRun 3

45%

Generation fleet and turbine slots provide advantage but hyperscaler timelines extend beyond 2026 for many projects.

Generation fleet and turbine slots provide advantage but hyperscaler timelines e

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if NRG announces cumulative data center power contracts of 1 GW or more during 2026. Resolves NO if below 1 GW.

Resolution Source

NRG earnings calls, press releases, or investor presentations

Source Trigger

Data center contracts vs. 1 GW+ 2026 target -- The primary narrative validation event. Failure to announce material contracts would challenge the optionality premium.

moat-mapperCOMPETITIVE_POSITIONHIGH

View NRG Analysis

Full multi-lens equity analysis