NRGActive

Will NRG achieve net debt/EBITDA below 3.0x by year-end 2026?

Resolves February 28, 2027(325d)

IG: 0.80

Current Prediction

45%

Likely No

Model Agreement97%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 40% – 48%Aggregate: 45%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

48%

Post-LS Power leverage elevated. 3x by year-end 2026 requires both EBITDA execution and debt paydown. 24-36 month target suggests 2027 more likely.

Post-LS Power leverage elevated. 3x by year-end 2026 requires both EBITDA execut

opusRun 2

45%

Deleveraging math works under reasonable assumptions but integration costs and ERCOT sensitivity create risk.

Deleveraging math works under reasonable assumptions but integration costs and E

opusRun 3

47%

3x within first year post-acquisition is aggressive. Typical utility deleveraging takes 2-3 years.

3x within first year post-acquisition is aggressive. Typical utility deleveragin

sonnetRun 1

43%

Post-LS Power leverage elevated. 3x by year-end 2026 requires both EBITDA execution and debt paydown. 24-36 month target suggests 2027 more likely.

Post-LS Power leverage elevated. 3x by year-end 2026 requires both EBITDA execut

sonnetRun 2

45%

Deleveraging math works under reasonable assumptions but integration costs and ERCOT sensitivity create risk.

Deleveraging math works under reasonable assumptions but integration costs and E

sonnetRun 3

40%

3x within first year post-acquisition is aggressive. Typical utility deleveraging takes 2-3 years.

3x within first year post-acquisition is aggressive. Typical utility deleveragin

haikuRun 1

45%

Post-LS Power leverage elevated. 3x by year-end 2026 requires both EBITDA execution and debt paydown. 24-36 month target suggests 2027 more likely.

Post-LS Power leverage elevated. 3x by year-end 2026 requires both EBITDA execut

haikuRun 2

43%

Deleveraging math works under reasonable assumptions but integration costs and ERCOT sensitivity create risk.

Deleveraging math works under reasonable assumptions but integration costs and E

haikuRun 3

47%

3x within first year post-acquisition is aggressive. Typical utility deleveraging takes 2-3 years.

3x within first year post-acquisition is aggressive. Typical utility deleveragin

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if NRG reports net debt/adjusted EBITDA below 3.0x as of December 31, 2026. Resolves NO if 3.0x or above.

Resolution Source

NRG FY2026 10-K or Q4 earnings release

Source Trigger

Quarterly deleveraging progress -- Must track toward 3x net debt/EBITDA within 24-36 months. Any slippage signals balance sheet stress.

stress-scannerFUNDING_FRAGILITYHIGH

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