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NRGActive

Will NRG Smart Home (Vivint) maintain customer retention rate above 90% in FY2026?

Resolves February 28, 2027(236d)

IG: 0.24

Current Prediction

75%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement97%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 72% – 78%Aggregate: 75%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

78%

Vivint retention strong since acquisition. 9% customer growth vs 5-6% target validates integration. Subscription model has stickiness.

Vivint retention strong since acquisition. 9% customer growth vs 5-6% target val

opusRun 2

75%

Smart home market competitive but installed base has switching costs. NRG cross-selling adds retention lever.

Smart home market competitive but installed base has switching costs. NRG cross-

opusRun 3

77%

90% retention historically achievable for Vivint. NRG integration has added value to customer proposition.

90% retention historically achievable for Vivint. NRG integration has added valu

sonnetRun 1

73%

Vivint retention strong since acquisition. 9% customer growth vs 5-6% target validates integration. Subscription model has stickiness.

Vivint retention strong since acquisition. 9% customer growth vs 5-6% target val

sonnetRun 2

75%

Smart home market competitive but installed base has switching costs. NRG cross-selling adds retention lever.

Smart home market competitive but installed base has switching costs. NRG cross-

sonnetRun 3

72%

90% retention historically achievable for Vivint. NRG integration has added value to customer proposition.

90% retention historically achievable for Vivint. NRG integration has added valu

haikuRun 1

75%

Vivint retention strong since acquisition. 9% customer growth vs 5-6% target validates integration. Subscription model has stickiness.

Vivint retention strong since acquisition. 9% customer growth vs 5-6% target val

haikuRun 2

73%

Smart home market competitive but installed base has switching costs. NRG cross-selling adds retention lever.

Smart home market competitive but installed base has switching costs. NRG cross-

haikuRun 3

77%

90% retention historically achievable for Vivint. NRG integration has added value to customer proposition.

90% retention historically achievable for Vivint. NRG integration has added valu

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if NRG reports Smart Home customer retention rate above 90% for FY2026. Resolves NO if 90% or below, or if the metric is not disclosed.

Resolution Source

NRG FY2026 earnings release or annual report

Source Trigger

Smart Home retention and growth -- The most durable revenue stream; deterioration here would be a material negative signal.

gravy-gaugeREVENUE_DURABILITYMEDIUM

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