NRGActive

Will NRG achieve FY2026 adjusted EBITDA above $5B (including LS Power)?

Resolves February 28, 2027(325d)

IG: 0.60

Current Prediction

60%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement97%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 55% – 63%Aggregate: 60%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

63%

LS Power immediately accretive at 7.5x multiple. Combined 23GW+ fleet generates substantial EBITDA. 3 years of exceeding guidance.

LS Power immediately accretive at 7.5x multiple. Combined 23GW+ fleet generates

opusRun 2

60%

Acquisition accounting and integration costs may reduce first-year contribution. Power price sensitivity affects both fleets.

Acquisition accounting and integration costs may reduce first-year contribution.

opusRun 3

62%

$5B benefits from LS Power step-change. Management guidance likely conservative. Execution risk manageable.

$5B benefits from LS Power step-change. Management guidance likely conservative.

sonnetRun 1

58%

LS Power immediately accretive at 7.5x multiple. Combined 23GW+ fleet generates substantial EBITDA. 3 years of exceeding guidance.

LS Power immediately accretive at 7.5x multiple. Combined 23GW+ fleet generates

sonnetRun 2

60%

Acquisition accounting and integration costs may reduce first-year contribution. Power price sensitivity affects both fleets.

Acquisition accounting and integration costs may reduce first-year contribution.

sonnetRun 3

55%

$5B benefits from LS Power step-change. Management guidance likely conservative. Execution risk manageable.

$5B benefits from LS Power step-change. Management guidance likely conservative.

haikuRun 1

60%

LS Power immediately accretive at 7.5x multiple. Combined 23GW+ fleet generates substantial EBITDA. 3 years of exceeding guidance.

LS Power immediately accretive at 7.5x multiple. Combined 23GW+ fleet generates

haikuRun 2

58%

Acquisition accounting and integration costs may reduce first-year contribution. Power price sensitivity affects both fleets.

Acquisition accounting and integration costs may reduce first-year contribution.

haikuRun 3

62%

$5B benefits from LS Power step-change. Management guidance likely conservative. Execution risk manageable.

$5B benefits from LS Power step-change. Management guidance likely conservative.

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if NRG reports FY2026 adjusted EBITDA of $5.0B or higher. Resolves NO if below $5.0B.

Resolution Source

NRG FY2026 10-K or Q4 earnings release

Source Trigger

Management execution track record: 3 consecutive years of raising and exceeding guidance. LS Power expected to be immediately accretive.

gravy-gaugeREVENUE_DURABILITYHIGH

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