Will a new nuclear power purchase agreement exceeding 1 GW total capacity be announced by a hyperscaler by September 30, 2026?
Why This Question Matters
The asset-repricing thesis depends on continued hyperscaler PPA conversion. A >1 GW deal would validate expanding demand beyond early movers and extend the repricing runway. Absence would suggest addressable fleet capacity is saturating — testing whether the growth expansion is bounded by existing infrastructure as the thesis claims.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if any hyperscaler (Google, Amazon/AWS, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, or Oracle) announces a signed or binding nuclear power purchase agreement, tolling agreement, or behind-the-meter arrangement with total contracted capacity exceeding 1,000 MW (1 GW) — either as a single deal or cumulative new commitments from one hyperscaler — by September 30, 2026. Must be for nuclear-specific or nuclear-primary generation. Resolves NO if no such announcement is made by September 30, 2026.
Resolution Source
SEC 8-K filings, company press releases, earnings call disclosures
Source Trigger
Asset repricing event driven by hyperscaler PPAs — growth expansion flows through bilateral PPA channel. VST most signed capacity (2,600+ MW), CEG highest-profile (Microsoft TMI 835 MW), TLN unique behind-the-meter model (Amazon 960 MW). New >1 GW PPA would validate and extend the repricing runway.
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