Will any public reactor tech company (OKLO, NNE, or SMR) experience a >50% market cap decline from March 25, 2026 levels within 12 months?

Three independent shots on goal at the first-passage 50% threshold with elevated correlation. NNE alone has near-coin-flip probability of 50% drawdown given $1.3B speculative micro-cap profile, 58% probability of >$50M equity offering creating discrete dilution events, 70% probability competitor builds first, and historical pattern of 30-50% single-week moves. SMR carries 60% probability of class action surviving MTD plus continuous Part 53 erosion of certification moat — multiple discrete repricing events plausible within 12 months. OKLO is the hardest to halve (largest cap, Altman/Meta support) but its $10.9B is built almost entirely on narrative; a single adverse NRC PDC outcome or Kairos Hermes construction milestone reframing could trigger 50% repricing as already happened to multiple SPAC peers in 2024. With three correlated names and multiple binary catalysts skewed negative, combined OR-condition probability sits in the 0.65-0.80 range.

The structural case for YES is strong — universal AT-RISK across 6 lenses, DISCONNECTED narrative consensus, $16.2B on zero revenue is the most concentrated negative consensus in the entire sector analysis. However, two factors temper the probability below the 0.75+ that pure structural read would suggest. First, 'at any point in 12 months' first-passage is sensitive to sector momentum — if URNM/URA continue +40% trajectories on hyperscaler PPA tape bombs and TMI restart progress, even fundamentally distressed names ride the wave. Second, OKLO at $10.9B with Sam Altman backing has demonstrated narrative resilience through prior NRC denial in 2022; the buyer base is sticky and short squeezes are documented. The base case is that NNE and SMR each have 50-55% individual probability of touching the threshold, OKLO ~30%, with correlation pushing aggregated OR-probability to ~0.65. Below 0.70 because a strong nuclear-sector tailwind could offset 1-2 idiosyncratic shocks.

OR-condition with three high-volatility pre-revenue names dramatically raises the YES probability. Historical data: each of OKLO, NNE, SMR has seen 50%+ drawdowns in trailing 18-24 months. NNE in particular routinely moves 30-50% in single weeks — at $1.3B with $80M+ FY2026 cash outflows and 58% likelihood of dilutive equity raise, the path to $650M is well-trodden. SMR's 60% probability of class action surviving MTD is a discrete catalyst that historically triggers 30-50% single-day moves on adverse rulings. The convergent 6-lens AT-RISK consensus, $200-300M combined annual cash burn, and private competitor leadership (Kairos under construction, TerraPower under construction) form a coherent bear thesis. The question is not whether the shakeout occurs — three lenses converge on a 2-4 year window — but whether 50% repricing of at least one name happens in the first year. Given dilution mechanics alone (NNE almost certainly raises equity at a discount), the probability sits in 0.65-0.75 range.

Strong cross-lens negative consensus supports an elevated probability, but I'm tempering below the 0.70+ that pure base-rate analysis suggests. Key considerations pushing toward 0.62: (1) 'at any point in 12 months' is the operative phrase — if measured at year-end-only the probability would be lower, but first-passage with high vol pushes it up. (2) Strong sector momentum is the dominant counter-force. URNM +41% YTD, $13B+ ETF AUM, hyperscaler PPA cadence accelerating — sub-vertical sentiment could remain bid even on idiosyncratic weakness. (3) The 2-4 year shakeout timeline is explicitly slower than this 12-month resolution window — lenses suggest distress materializes structurally over 24-48 months, not within 12. (4) For OKLO specifically at $10.9B, a 50% drop to $5.45B would require a major catalyst (NRC denial, Meta partnership cancellation) — possible but not base case. Combined OR-probability of ~0.60-0.65 reflects structural distress weighted against momentum tailwind and hard 50% threshold for the largest name.

Three pre-revenue high-volatility names with universal AT-RISK across 6 lenses, OR-condition where only one needs to drop 50%. NNE at $1.3B with near-certain dilution is the most likely path. SMR class action survival probability 60% creates a discrete catalyst. Historical precedent: all three have seen 50%+ drawdowns in past 24 months. Sector momentum is the main counter — strong nuclear ETF flows could lift weak names. Aggregated OR-probability for first-passage with elevated correlation lands in 0.65-0.70 range.